Red Bull’s Formula One driver line-up remains fluid after already making changes this year.
Kiwi Liam Lawson’s future in 2026 is yet to be guaranteed.
There is little certainty over who will partner Max Verstappen beyond this year.
Just nine races into the 2025 Formula One season, you’d be forgiven for feeling a sense of déjà vu around the future make-up of Red Bull’s driver pairings.
Having so brutally axed New Zealand’s Liam Lawson after just two races in favour of Japan’s Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bullhave effectively written off the 2025 constructors championship.
By their own admission, the rest of this year is now about steering Max Verstappen to a fifth straight drivers title, and nothing else.
But for those in the Red Bull stable who aren’t Verstappen, there is plenty to play for. And for Lawson, the rest of 2025 becomes about proving to Red Bull why he deserves to stay in the organisation for 2026.
After being demoted so hastily by Red Bull, Lawson has slowly started to rebuild at sister outfit Racing Bulls, evidenced by finishing eighth in Monaco and narrowly missing the points in Spain a week later.
However, given that no driver has ever been demoted by Red Bull and returned to the senior team, just what Lawson’s future looks like is as clear as mud.
To make matters worse, in terms of promotion, Lawson has been comprehensively outperformed by Racing Bulls teammate Isack Hadjar at every opportunity since he returned to the team.
On top of that, Tsunoda’s form falling off a cliff at Red Bull makes the Lawson versus Hadjar battle more important than it’s ever going to be.
Ironically, though, it’s Tsunoda who could just end up having the biggest say on what happens to Lawson from here.
In his eight races – seven grands prix and a sprint – since replacing Lawson with the former world champions, Tsunoda has accrued just seven points. In that same span, Verstappen has 89 points.
Considering he was only elevated, it’s understood, as engine supplier Honda offered Red Bull an eight-figure sum to guarantee a local driver for its home Grand Prix, Tsunoda’s place in the side is now under serious threat.
Will Red Bull axe him this year? Almost certainly not.
But given Verstappen has pledged his future to the team for 2026, finding a teammate to get equal results out of a newly designed car will be item one on Red Bull’s agenda.
Furthermore, considering Honda and Red Bull part ways at the end of this season, there will be little strategic or financial value in Tsunoda staying with the team either.
If it eventuates that Tsunoda can’t improve over the rest of the season, he will without question be replaced. Unfortunately for Lawson, at this point in time at least, Hadjar would be the driver to step up and replace him alongside Verstappen.
So far, the French rookie has scored points in five of his nine grands prix and is Red Bull’s second-best driver after Verstappen in this year’s drivers championship.
Even if Lawson’s results were to seriously pick up, would the team’s decision-makers – team boss Christian Horner and adviser Dr Helmut Marko – go back to him?
Horner has maintained that, unlike Gasly, that door is not shut on Lawson, but the Kiwi is starting from scratch in proving to Red Bull that he should be in that second seat.
If Tsunoda does improve, though, that might prove problematic for Lawson.
Red Bull boast the best driver development programme in the world. Aside from the four current Red Bull drivers on this year’s grid and Gasly, Williams’ driver pairing of Alex Albon and Carlos Sainz also came through the team’s academy.
And, as such is the production line that Red Bull boasts, the next talent isn’t far away.
Having won the Formula Regional Oceania Championship title earlier this year, 17-year-old prospect Arvid Lindblad is already turning heads in Formula Two and is widely regarded as Red Bull’s best prodigy since Verstappen.
Liam Lawson is under pressure. Photos / Herald montage
From his 11 races in Formula Two, Lindblad already has two wins and another second-place finish for good measure, to sit third in the championship.
If Lindblad can continue his upward trajectory and lift the Formula Two title this year, therefore making himself ineligible to return to the championship in 2026, Red Bull’s current drivers would be within their rights to look over their shoulders.
The teenager has been granted a special exemption for his Super Licence to drive in Formula One, effectively meaning he’s able to be promoted immediately.
One way or another, Lindblad will be at Racing Bulls next year. Just whose seat he takes is going to be decided over the coming months.
Even if it ends up that way this year, Red Bull won’t want their junior team made up of two rookie drivers. If Tsunoda continues to struggle and Hadjar moves up, it’s almost certain Lawson will be kept on as the senior driver, in the same way Gasly was, to both lead the team and mentor those coming through.
Of course, these things are never set in stone. Red Bull could just as easily look elsewhere for Verstappen’s next teammate.
Both Albon and Gasly have proven to be very capable drivers since they’ve left Red Bull, finding new homes with Williams and Alpine, but could just as easily be lured back at the promise of a competitive car.
Furthermore, drivers like Felipe Drugovich – currently Aston Martin’s reserve – are itching for a chance, having proven their worth in junior categories.
There are still 15 races to go this year – and every result might just prove to be invaluable for Liam Lawson.
Alex Powell is a sports journalist for the NZ Herald. He has been a sports journalist since 2016.
