F1 title permutations: What Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri need in Abu Dhabi

Lando Norris of McLaren, Oscar Piastri of and McLaren and Red Bull's Max Verstappen. Photo / Getty Images

Max Verstappen won the mind games this week but overtaking Lando Norris to claim the Formula One drivers’ championship in Abu Dhabi early on Monday will be a tougher challenge.

With just one race remaining, Norris (408 points), Verstappen (396) and Oscar Piastri (392) all have a chance of winning the title.

There is no sprint race this weekend, so it’s a straight shootout in the grand prix, with the following points awarded to the drivers finishing first to 10th: 25, 18, 15, 12, 10, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1.

If Norris makes the podium, he takes the title. Even if he finishes fourth or fifth, the McLaren driver can claim his first F1 crown as long as Red Bull rival Verstappen doesn’t win.

If Norris finishes outside the points, he would remain top of the standings if Verstappen fails to make the podium and Piastri is no higher than third.

Verstappen must make the podium to have any chance of snatching the title. If he wins the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Norris needs to finish off the podium for the Dutchman to earn a fifth straight championship.

If Verstappen places second, he needs Norris to finish no higher than seventh. If he’s third, he has to hope Norris is ninth or lower and that Piastri doesn’t win.

Piastri has the most difficult route to a first world title. If he wins, teammate Norris needs to be P6 or lower. If the Australian is runner-up, he needs Norris no higher than ninth and Verstappen off the podium.

The above scenarios are based on the race going the full distance and not being red flagged early. If that happens, Norris would be favoured with reduced points allocated.

If there is a points tie at the top, the title would be determined on countback. All three have seven wins this season but Norris would edge it because he has eight second places compared with Verstappen’s six and Piastri’s four.

F1 can be as much a mental game as a driver’s ability to get the most out of the car. Verstappen is the master of maximising what he’s given to drive and is great at getting inside the heads of his rivals.

At the pre-race drivers’ conference, Verstappen spoke about how he spent this week playing with his daughter, spending time on his SIM racing team and figuring out some stuff for his GT3 team next year.

The message was: “Hey guys, I’ve won four world titles already, I’m not really bothered about another one.”

Verstappen did say: “Look, I hadn’t planned to be in the title fight at the end, especially after Zandvoort, but here we are.”

Piastri was 104 points ahead of Verstappen after the Dutch Grand Prix three months ago, the 15th of 24 races this season.

If the 2025 F1 title was decided by mind games, Verstappen would already have won.