Kris Shannon: Five reasons the White Ferns will win the World Cup

New Zealand celebrates a wicket during the ICC Womens World Cup warm up cricket match, White Ferns Vs Australia at the Bert Sutcliffe Oval, Lincoln, New Zealand. Photo / Photosport.co.nz

Kris Shannon gives five reasons the White Ferns will win the World Cup.

1. Top order in top form

Even before eviscerating Australia in a warm-up match on Tuesday, it was clear New Zealand had settled on a top order to rival any in the tournament.

Amelia Kerr's return to the side and elevation to No 3 seems, caveats about small sample size aside, to have locked in a quartet of proficient runscorers.

For the final four games of last month's 4-1 series victory over India, New Zealand opened with the experience of skipper Sophie Devine and Suzie Bates, followed by Kerr and Amy Satterthwaite.

Across those four games, two batting first and two chasing, there was an average of 160 on the board in the 29th over when the fourth wicket fell.

They didn't get another chance to again build that sturdy base against Australia because Devine, Bates and Kerr smoked 325 runs from 259 balls.

No one will get too excited about that result; it was a warm-up fixture and would be wrong to infer any edge over the Aussies. (Or would it? Stick around.)

But that top order, if its hot summer continues, has the potential to lay a tournament-winning platform.

2. Pandemic pandemonium

It's kinda funny, in a sad way. This tournament was supposed to have been played last year, but the pandemic happened.

The same pandemic that now, when the tournament is being played, is approaching a once-unthinkable peak in this country's case count.

Thankfully, organisers prepared for this eventuality and came up with a solution: as long as nine squad members are Covid-free, support staff can cosplay as cricketers, hopefully the fielder at third man doesn't pull a hammy since she's also the physio.

But why complain when that chaos could work in the White Ferns' favour?

They won't want it to, of course. On Earth 2 - where there is no pandemic and where Vladimir Putin is using his honorary black belt to pursue a painful taekwondo career - the White Ferns are approaching the first anniversary of a glorious World Cup triumph, one in which every cricket team fielded an XI consisting of 11 cricket players.

But back on this Earth, if a rival drop a game due to their media manager having no discernible athletic talent, we can live with it.

Sophie Devine of New Zealand during the ICC Womens World Cup warm up cricket match, White Ferns Vs Australia at the Bert Sutcliffe Oval, Lincoln, New Zealand. Photo / Photosport.co.nz

3. History sometimes repeats

The year was 2000. We were living on a collective high after escaping annihilation from Y2K. New Zealand had won a whopping one gold medal at the Sydney Olympics, further improving the nation's mood. But at Bert Sutcliffe Oval the best was yet to come.

In a match Cricinfo described as potentially the greatest World Cup final ever, the White Ferns became the third country after Australia and England to lift the women's trophy.

Speaking of strong top orders, New Zealand's featured Rebecca Rolls, Emily Drumm and Debbie Hockley, but after choosing to bat the hosts were bowled out by Australia for 184.

That total initially appeared insufficient as opener Belinda Clark plundered 91 from 102 balls. But the New Zealand attack was parsimonious, the pressure saw two Aussies run out, and Clare Nicholson's dismissal of Charmaine Mason with the first ball of the final over sealed a scarcely believable four-run victory.

Haters will say what happened 22 years ago is entirely irrelevant in this tournament. But what better way to capture the spirit of 2000 - and heal this divided nation with its 96 per cent vaccination rate - than by repeating history in Christchurch on April 3.

4. Australia are there for the taking

Australia - predictably, tragically - are hot favourites to win this World Cup. But New Zealand's demolition job on Tuesday only emphasised what few people have been saying: they're vulnerable.

Although some may think Australia's six World Cup triumphs from 11 tournaments puts history on their side, focus instead on the five tournaments in which they failed.

Aussie's recent record of winning 29 of 30 ODIs makes them seem almost untouchable. A closer look at their even-more-recent record reveals they have lost two of their last six.

One of those losses doesn't count, because it was a warm-up, but still. Quite touchable.

Despite Tuesday's efforts, Australia have a huge edge on the White Ferns, boasting a success rate of 76 per cent from 132 matches. But that means New Zealand have beaten the best 31 times, by far the most of any international side.

Sure, our neighbours have been lucky enough to produce a disproportionate number of the greatest cricketers to ever play the game, but that luck might be about to run out.

Amelia Kerr of New Zealand congratulates Sophie Devine of New Zealand on reaching 150 runs during the ICC Womens World Cup warm up cricket match. Photo / Photosport.co.nz

5. We're overdue for some fortune

No need to recap. No need to dwell on the lesson Australia taught the Black Caps in last year's Twenty20 World Cup final.

Certainly no need to recall the same damn thing happening in the 2015 ODI final, a month-long build up of national hope bursting five balls into the match.

And honestly we really do *not* need to mention what went down at that dingy little ground in St John's Wood three years ago. Super Over? More like, super over it.

The White Ferns have been no luckier, finishing one spot outside of the semifinals in their last three white-ball tournaments, missing out on the final four in the most recent - the 2020 T20 World Cup - after losing two games by a combined seven runs.

All of which is to say, New Zealand are owed a bit of fortune in limited-overs tournaments.

Then again, we might not need it. Have you seen Australia? What a rabble.