KEY POINTS:
There has probably never been quite such an open Open as the US Open 2008.
Despite Tiger Woods' much-discussed knee injury and lack of match play he is a surprisingly short-priced favourite, presumably because he loves the testing Torrey Pines course; and that he will turn up refreshed
and rehabilitated (where have we heard that word before?).
But this is the US Open where three things are always apparent: First, the sadists who run the thing like the course long, the fairways narrow and the rough so thick that if you let go of your beloved's hand, you may never see her again. Second, par is a good score. A really good score. Third, he who has a good short game and putts well will usually win.
You could add a fourth element: You won't win if you're American. The last four winners have not hailed from the US - South Africa's Retief Goosen won in 2004, Michael Campbell in 2005, Australian Geoff Ogilvy in 2006 and the podgy, cigarette-puffing Argentine Angel Cabrera last year.
Which just goes to show that surprises are unsurprisingly common at the US Open. This year, in spite of the Americans' poor record in their own major, if you are not called Woods or Mickelson, you are a 20-to-one shot according to the TAB.
Yet Woods' layoff hangs a big question mark over his head. Mickelson, once unkindly nicknamed FIGJAM by some of his fellow pros (it stands for 'F*** I'm Good, Just Ask Me'), can quickly lose his way if his driver malfunctions.
That raises the question - if not Woods and FIG, er, Mickelson, then who?
Who knows - this is such an open field and the conditions likely to be so tough that identifying contenders is a bit like the question once asked of laconic British golfer Mark James - how did he think the game of golf could be improved? Well, said James, I always think the hole is too small.
There will be legions of golfers thinking the same thing after fighting their way around Torrey Pines but perhaps the best equipped to come out on top will be those who can scramble well and do the best on and around the greens.
So here's six who might do well - please note use of the conditional - and two rank outsiders who might be worth a longshot bet.
Sergio Garcia (Spain)
Strikes the ball like a magician, putts like an apprentice. If he can get his putter and short game going, could break through for his first major. ($20 to win).
Padraig Harrington (Ireland)
In good form, is a battler and doesn't get all bent and anxious when things go against him. A good grinder who could grind all the way here. ($20)
Retief Goosen (South Africa)
Has lost form in recent years but is good around the greens and a tough golfer when he gets going. Take on trust but has been coming into some form and is good on this kind of course. ($25)
Trevor Immelman (South Africa)
Won the Masters this year, his first major win and promptly did a Campbell, playing poorly since. But has qualities of focus and grit and a fine, accurate and irons game. Not without a chance here ($40).
Geoff Ogilvy (Australia)
A former winner, albeit when Mickelson self-destructed with the major in hand, and has been coming into form again. Hits the ball a long way so the course length won't be a problem; it will all be on his short game. ($30).
Mike Weir (Canada)
Showed recent form on the PGA Tour and can be a fine short game exponent and a deadly putter under pressure. Fanciful, perhaps, but showed with his Masters win that he can master difficult courses and can play well enough to make his lack of length irrelevant. ($50)
Roughies
Robert Karlsson (Sweden)
Can be an elegant and skilled golfer on his day; this a step up from normal but has been making good progress on both sides of the Atlantic lately. ($60).
Tim Clark (South Africa)
Out of form until lately but can be a tough, dogged golfer which is just what is required in this championship. Worth a top five bet, if nothing else ($80).
And if you're wondering why there are no US names in this list, just ponder the fact that Messrs Woods and Mickelson have won eight of the last 17 majors, with only two other Americans featuring - Todd Hamilton and Shaun Micheel - and there ain't many betting either of those two will win next week.
