David Leggat: Omens against Tiger's big comeback dream

Tiger Woods. Photo / AP

Tiger Woods is a serious chance of missing next month's Masters.

Back spasms did for him at two of his three PGA Tour appearances this year, forcing a withdrawal once, and reducing him to a hobble in the other.

He's withdrawn from the Arnold Palmer Invitational, an event he's won eight times and which began in Orlando yesterday.

The most recent of his 14 major titles was at the US Open in 2008.

There have been 22 majors and 19 different winners - Padraig Harrington, Phil Mickelson and Rory McIlroy are two-time champions - since Woods won, memorably, on one good leg at Torrey Pines in California six years ago.

Woods remains the world's No 1 ranked player, even after returns this year of ties for 80th and 25th and a withdrawal.

But he's still five shy of the one record he's always craved, overtaking Jack Nicklaus' record 18 majors. The odds lengthen with each passing major. So does the run end at 14?

It's no surprise that Nicklaus' old sparring chum, Palmer, was gloomy this week about Woods' chances.

"I don't think 38 [Woods' age] is the ultimate stopping point for his quest to do what Jack did. I think it lessens the possibility of that happening.

"It's going to be tough to keep the concentration and the type of the game that is necessary to win majors."

These are exactly the qualities which were the hallmark of Woods when he was the game's colossus.

Leg or arm injuries are one thing. Woods fixed knee problems, changed his swing and last year won five titles.

But the back is something different, controlling the body movement from, in Woods' case, backswing to follow through.

So ask yourself - setting aside any feelings towards Woods the person - if he didn't win another major would it really matter? To this mind, no.

Twelve of the last 16 major winners were first-time champions, many of them hungry and not remotely cowed in the way Woods was able to dominate players for a decade, often by force of personality and sheer will to win. Variety and the spreading of honours is no bad thing.

"These young guys are tough," seven-time major champion and all-round legend Palmer said.

"If they continue to play as well as they have been, it's going to be tough for anybody to continue to win majors."

And consider, Woods has never won at Augusta without having had a victory beforehand in the same year.

He's thought unlikely to play the two tournaments, the Texas and Houston Opens, immediately before Augusta, so the omens are not good.

In fact they're not good, full stop.