Football: Home factor should help Phoenix reach playoffs

The Wellington Phoenix boast one of the more attacking-minded starting line-ups in the A-League, including pacy striker Roy Krishna. Photo / Getty Images

The Wellington Phoenix host Melbourne City in their A-League elimination final at Westpac Stadium tomorrow night with a semifinal spot on offer next weekend. Daniel Richardson looks at how the game might play out.

Why the Wellington Phoenix will win
They're at home and you don't like to bet against teams who are at home in the playoffs. Plus, the Phoenix have been hot for most of the season and boast one of the more attacking-minded starting line-ups.

Melbourne City have also struggled recently, they've shipped seven goals in their past two games and are without a win in their past four; that's not the sort of form you want to bring into the post-season.

Wellington have been building for a home finals match all year and after stuttering in a handful of games lately, it's hard to imagine them letting their fans down again.

The bandwagon supporters should be all aboard for this playoff outing and that will give the Phoenix the extra drive to perform.

The Phoenix are also injury-free, bar veteran striker Joel Griffiths, which means coach Ernie Merrick has plenty of options on his bench.

"There's a good feeling in the squad," Merrick said this week.

Goalkeeper Glen Moss should also return from a minor knee complaint, which will give them a calm presence at the back when the pressure of the finals ramps up.

Veteran experience with the likes of Andrew Durante, Ben Sigmund, Vince Lia and Michael McGlinchey should also play a part.

Why the Wellington Phoenix will lose
Wellington have scored only four goals in their past five games, which is a worrying statistic. When the Phoenix were tearing the A-League apart during the middle stages of the campaign they were scoring for fun but the well has dried up.

City have kept them scoreless in their past two matches - a pair of 0-all draws - something which few sides have done against Wellington.

Melbourne may not be strong on the flanks but they have quality in the centre of defence and have the ability to flood the box which nullifies the threat of the Phoenix when they try to attack wide and turn the ball inside.

Striker Nathan Burns, who has scored 13 goals this season, hasn't found the back of the net since round 22. McGlinchey has also become less involved in recent weeks as he drifts towards the wing during games when his best work is done by getting on the ball in the middle of the pitch.

Merrick has also juggled his selections in the past fortnight and isn't settled on his preferred fullbacks, while the midfield has also been shaken up. That creates unrest within the team. Then there's the looming threat that the game could go to a penalty shoot-out and Wellington have fluffed five spot kicks this season.

You'd have to wonder what the confidence levels are like within the Phoenix's ranks if the game was to be decided by penalties.

Prediction: If the Phoenix get an early goal they won't look back.