Soccer: Luck of the Irish couldn't be worse

There are lies, damned lies and little numbers that can be twisted all manner of ways. But however you look at it, making a positive out of the statistics associated with Northern Ireland's football team before England's World Cup visit on Thursday defies mathematical logic.

Try the historical approach. It throws up 97 previous meetings between the countries, of which the Ulstermen have lost 75, conceded 323 goals and achieved just six (admittedly glorious) victories.

The fixture began in 1882, with a 13-0 home defeat, resuming after a long break at Old Trafford last March, when England won 4-0.

The last time Northern Ireland managed a goal in the series was 25 years and nine games ago; England's most recent defeat in Belfast was in 1927.

Take England out of the equation and the picture is a little brighter, though not much. Going into last weekend's group six game against Azerbaijan, it was a mere four years since Northern Ireland had won either a competitive match or a home game.

So the one undeniable statistic that might cheer up the Six Counties is: Northern Ireland 2 Azerbaijan 0.

It is no surprise that the phrase that recurs most frequently when listening to Lawrie Sanchez, the team's down-to-earth manager, is: "It's a fact of life ... " As in: "It's a fact of life that we don't have the greatest strength in depth ... It's a fact of life that if England get ahead, they're likely to beat you."

And, after bravely sending home the miscreants Jeff Whitley and Phil Mulryne last Wednesday: "It's happened, it's a fact of life."

Sanchez can quote all the stats, too, including the famous one about Northern Ireland having gone 1298 minutes, spanning 15 games, without a goal when he succeeded Sammy McIlroy nearly two years ago.

The good news was that they scored in his first match, at home to Norway; the bad news was that the visitors knocked in four.

A less demanding fixture list thereafter allowed the team to improve their confidence and world ranking at last, with six games undefeated, only to "freeze" - Sanchez' word - when Poland arrived at Windsor Park last September for the start of the World Cup qualifying campaign and eased to a 3-0 victory.

"We made big progress in 2004, taking our ranking from 124 to 107," he said, "but this year was always going to be more difficult. We played England [0-4], Poland [0-1] and Germany [1-4], so the ranking slipped." A lingering consequence of the previous goal-less run was that the team tended to collapse as soon as the opposition scored.

"It showed in the England game and again when Germany went one up. It was a mental thing. They didn't expect to win games and a lot of the time never scored, which we do now," Sanchez said.

"After playing England, we went to Poland and played ever so well, but went for a win at the end and they broke away and scored."

A friendly in Malta last month, which would have been lost had Birmingham's Maik Taylor not saved a late penalty, was considerably less encouraging, even with so many players unavailable that Sanchez had to change the system and use wing-backs.

"We didn't perform at all. It really looked like a pre-season game ... . But it was probably too early, some of my players hadn't had a competitive game at that stage."

At Old Trafford, a 4-5-1 formation had held out when the dam burst immediately after halftime.

While promising to give greater support in attack on Thursday to David Healy, of Leeds, the country's record scorer, Sanchez is aware of the danger of charging forward on waves of support.

"One or two people were disappointed at Old Trafford that we didn't have more of a go in the first half, but it's a fact of life that if England get ahead, they're likely to beat you. So you don't want to be a couple down at halftime or you could end up losing 8-0."

Off the pitch, there are signs of modernisation, in the Irish Football Association and at the once dilapidated Windsor Park (capacity still only 13,500). Two years ago, the IFA's council was stripped of its power and replaced by a board; an under-21 squad has been restored; and a new national stadium is under consideration.

So, of course, would a sensation against England. More mundanely, the manager's ambition reflects the new realities, two decades after gracing the World Cup finals: "To finish fourth in the group would be nice."

- INDEPENDENT