Newstalk ZB lead rugby commentator Elliott Smith analyses the latest from the world of rugby.
An explanation...
Overnight, Australia were named as the host of the 2027 and 2029 Rugby World Cups and USA the 2031 and 2033 editions.
A modified bid process has made the process more transparent, withbids invited and a preferred candidate phase effectively operating like an extended version of the old 90-day employment trial, rather than jostling for votes in a process more reminiscent of selecting a new Pope.
World Rugby has learned from the mess that became the 2023 bidding process, when South Africa were given recommended status by World Rugby's executive — advice subsequently ignored by their members who tossed aside an Irish bid and the South African entry in favour of the French.
It's also tied the men's and women's events as a package, giving the growing women's sport certainty.
Australia and the United States will be quality hosts; the sport in Australia desperately needs something to build towards and the United States has the potential to develop new fans there.
The mistake rugby types make with the USA is referring to it as a sleeping giant.
It doesn't need to convert the country, just a pocket is enough in a population like the US, a la football in 1994.
What chance is New Zealand of hosting again? Was 2011 our last chance?
The next package up for grabs is 2035/2037, which would be the same amount of time between the 1987 and 2011 tournaments held in New Zealand. But after two men's tournament cycles out of Europe, any bid from that part of the world would be the clear front-runner.
You'd hope South Africa — who at that point would be a frankly disgraceful 40 years removed since the 1995 event — would also be in the mix after being sidestepped for next year's tournament.
An observation...
New Zealand won the 2011 hosting rights on a campaign that mixed goodwill, rugby sentiment and history, plus the influence of the former Prime Minister Helen Clark and administrators like Jock Hobbs. Do those feelings and ties with rugby still remain to the same level? And would any bid stand up to the new World Rugby process?
When New Zealand bid in 2005, while a lot of the groundwork had been done, the decision to formalise a bid and the winning of the rights happened in the same year.
All Blacks performing the haka before the Rugby Championship match between Argentina v New Zealand. Photo / Photosport.co.nz
A prediction...
While I'd like New Zealand to host a future World Cup, it's hard to see a third men's World Cup being played without some serious stadium investment around the country, and major Government backing.
Speaking to Mark Robinson on Newstalk ZB recently, I asked the New Zealand Rugby chief executive if there was any prospect of a bid in the future and his response didn't fill me with optimism, suggesting that World Rugby's expectations of revenue to reinvest in the game and stadiums mean it will be challenging for New Zealand.
Robinson said, "that would be really challenging — and we'd have to be really creative as a country if we're to ever broach that subject again".
My advice would be if you're in the right end of the country for this year's women's tournament, make the most of it. It might be the last time either event is here for a long time.
