Neil Wagner. Photo / Photosport
COMMENT
It seems a strange thing to say about a willing, competitive fast bowler who just last month became the second-fastest New Zealand bowler to take 150 test wickets – but could time be running out for Neil Wagner?
It's not an age thing (though Wagner will be 33 in March) as there is no doubting his fitness, stamina and engine – his 13 overs on the trot in the scorching heat of Abu Dhabi in the Black Caps' first test victory over Pakistan says it all.
But he was dropped for Tim Southee for the third test – who played a leading role in a rare away series win – and Wagner's efforts in the first test against Sri Lanka on a batsman-friendly pitch perhaps pulled the first threads of doubt over his continuing career at the top.
That seems unfair when you consider only the great Richard Hadlee reached 150 test wickets faster than Wagner. It was a feat marked by his hometown paper, the Otago Daily Times, with a ringing endorsement: "You could mount a compelling argument the former Otago left-armer is New Zealand's greatest seamer since Sir Richard Hadlee. The statistics certainly lean that way…"
You could…but you wonder what Chris Martin, Southee, Trent Boult and Chris Cairns might say about that from their position much higher on the test-wicket-taking ladder than Wagner, though only Cairns and Hadlee have a better strike rate.
However, lately it's been the statistics that have posed the question re Wagner. There's no doubting his combative ticker but the hauls didn't match the heart in 2018.
In his eight test matches so far this calendar year (Wagner doesn't play short-form cricket for New Zealand), he has taken more than two wickets only once – three for 77 against England. He has a career average of 29.95 at the bowling crease, an economy rate of 3.15 and a strike rate of 55.5 balls bowled per wicket.
This year he has lowered his economy rate but his strike rate has ballooned to more than double (111.4) and his average for 2018 is 49.20 thus far. In test cricket, economy rate is probably the least important stat for a bowler.
This year, he has bowled 185.4 overs, 48 of them maidens, and his 10 wickets have cost 492 runs. Assuming he plays, the Boxing Day test against Sri Lanka will be important for him.
So why has Wagner struggled a bit this year? The major reason may be that batsmen have become used to his short-pitched bowling. In the first test against Sri Lanka, admittedly on a track where Postman Pat could have scored runs, Angelo Mathews and Kusal Mendis knew to expect a barrage from Wagner.
The element of surprise is gone; the nets can provide some valuable practice for what is about to come, batsmen can be better prepared mentally. Mendis dealt with him comfortably; Mathews had some awkward moments but the overall impression was of a bowling tactic that has gone a bit stale.
Remember too that Wagner re-invented himself to complement the successful swing bowling of Southee and Boult.
He used to produce a bit of swing himself, even reverse swing, shelved in favour of the short stuff – a real contrast to the other two pacemen. It's also probably fair to say that many modern international batsmen, with the constant diet of one day and T20 cricket these days, don't have the defensive systems to deal effectively with short or bodyline bowling.
Wagner is also a highly competitive soul and this analysis could look completely silly if he gains some help from a pacier pitch and runs through a side with his uncannily accurate bouncers.
But the feeling persists that he may need to re-invent himself again, maybe replenishing his box of tricks with swing.
He also has in his favour the fact he is seen as a test bowler – which gives the Black Caps the ability to avoid over-stretching their resources. Even so, he may be vulnerable to challenges next year from the likes of Matt Henry and Lockie Ferguson.
Henry has a reputation for being a bit costly but a wicket-taker. He was the star of English county cricket last season but has been used mainly in ODIs by the Black Caps; his nine tests have yielded 25 wickets at an average of 46.52. Ferguson has not played a test but has undeniable pace (and a handy bouncer). However, sheer speed is not enough at this level and he may have to convince on the stamina front.
Next year sees the beginning of the global test championship with two away tests against Sri Lanka in August and then three away against Australia (including the much-anticipated 2019 Boxing Day test) with two non-championship tests against England sandwiched between.
It seems likely the Black Caps' brains trust will want an alternative to Wagner by the time of the Australian series about a year away. Trying to bounce out an Australia line-up with Steve Smith and David Warner reinstated may not be the soundest tactic.
The Black Caps have built some enviable depth in the last few years, particularly in the spinning ranks where Mitchell Santner, Ajaz Patel, Will Somerville, Mark Craig, Todd Astle and Ish Sodhi are all competing.
They don't have the same depth in the quicks. Doug Bracewell, Adam Milne and Hamish Bennett are still around; Bracewell, while only 28, hasn't played a test for New Zealand for over two years. Boult turns 30 next year, Southee is already there, so there is a potential fast bowling gap on the horizon New Zealand Cricket will want to address.
Wagner may be the first cab off that particular rank and the second Sri Lanka test, assuming his selection, could be important.
Bevon Jacobs is yet to play international cricket, but he knows it's where he wants to be.