Kris Shannon runs through five reasons why the Black Caps can win the Twenty20 World Cup in Australia.
1. T20s can get weird
Doesn't really feel like we need 200-odd words on this one. Just check some scorecards from the last few days.
But since sending readers to a differentwebsite or publication is generally frowned upon in the media business, I suppose we can expound on this very obvious idea.
Twenty20 cricket is random and, as a result, results are random. There are a couple of reasons for that.
First, the format is still comparatively new. Anything new takes a while to figure out, as Liz Truss has discovered in her new role of Trying to Not Tank the British Economy.
Match strategy is still being honed, even broad stuff like structuring the batting order and choosing whom to bowl when.
Second, it's shorter. Stunning insight. But the shorter the contest, the more prone to variance. Twenty overs can be easily swung by one good or bad day from one player, reducing the impact of qualities like pedigree or depth that favour favoured sides.
All of this is how we get recent results like Namibia and Scotland not just beating Sri Lanka and the West Indies but thumping them.
This applies to the Black Caps in that it doesn't really matter how they're tracking. Get a couple of performances, win a few moments and all of a sudden they're holding the trophy.
2. Perfect preparation in ideal conditions
It's, uh, probably a good thing the Black Caps' form is less relevant. Because the signs are…not overwhelmingly positive.
We shouldn't read much into the fact that on Monday they were rolled for 98 and lost by nine wickets to South Africa. That was a warm-up game, serving the purpose of getting all 15 members of the squad fit, firing and ready for Saturday's opener against Australia.
But should we read anything into the clash being played at Allan Border Field in Brisbane, meaning it was the Black Caps' first taste of the type of conditions they will face throughout the World Cup? For the purposes of this column, no.
For the purposes of this column, we won't concern ourselves with the inconvenience of their recent tri-series with Pakistan and Bangladesh being played, according to CricViz, on the slowest and lowest pitches on record in New Zealand. Never mind if that stands in slight contrast to the hard and fast decks our friends across the Tasman generally prepare.
No, it's entirely reasonable to ignore that pesky reality and look at some alternative facts. To wit: this year the Black Caps have played 15 T20 matches and won 12. Wow, what a record, sounds like they're perfectly prepared, let's move on.
3. Williamson back to his best
OK, that may be an overreaction, but what fun is sport without overreacting to small samples?
Merely reacting: lame; for losers. Reacting involves measured thought, reason, context, boring shit like that.
There was the collapse in his scoring rates, the lack of runs, the nagging elbow injury. But all that is clearly now in the past. For 69 minutes on a nice afternoon at Hagley Oval, Williamson looked like Williamson again.
The skipper attacked from ball one, hitting four of his first five deliveries to the fence. He rotated the stroke well, facing six dot balls in his stay. And he employed a full repertoire of shots, finding gaps to collect six boundaries.
It was Williamson's first international half-century since last year's final, and the Black Caps might need a few more to go one better this time around.
Williamson was in good touch during the tri-series final. Photo / photosport.nz
4. Australia are there for the taking
While only a fool would place much weight on New Zealand's warm-up matches, it's conversely wise to assess our neighbours' and reach an undeniable conclusion: Australia are vulnerable.
Sure, they're defending champions, but what have they done lately? They've won only nine of 16 T20 matches this year, that's what.
And, yes, they're hosts, playing in familiar conditions. But how have those conditions helped in a randomly selected period (don't look into it) of the last 10 days? The hosts lost twice to England, were saved by rain in a third game and *embarrassingly collapsed* in Monday's match against India.
That's right, chasing 187, Australia lost their last six wickets for nine runs. Are these your T20 kings?
Before you think the Canary Yellow can fall back on a historical dominance in the format, let me reveal - because I just checked the Wikipedia page - that Australia have claimed only one of seven T20 World Cups. Sad.
5. Devon Conway won't break his hand this time
Devon Conway won't break his hand this time. He knows it was silly to punch his bat after being dismissed in last year's semifinal victory over England, suffering an injury that saw him miss a final in which Williamson was the only batsman who shone, and he won't do it again.
