If the Black Caps are going to get over the line and take the West Indies’ final six wickets for victory in Christchurch, how they deal with the potential loss of Matt Henry will be vital.
As both sides played out day four at Hagley Oval, the Black Caps’ efforts to take the final 10 West Indian wickets were hampered by the loss of their frontline fast bowler.
With Nathan Smith already ruled out of the first test by a side strain, New Zealand’s worst fears were realised when 33-year-old Henry limped from the field before lunch with a calf injury.
And despite returning to the field in the afternoon - and bowling an eight-over spell that yielded the wicket of West Indies captain Roston Chase - Henry left again in the afternoon, and didn’t return as he went for a scan on his right calf.
Both Henry and Smith have had scans on their respective injuries. And while Henry has not officially been ruled out, the Black Caps would be foolish if not negligent to risk further aggravating the injury if he was to play on.
The equation for both sides, then, is simple. The Black Caps need to take six wickets in 90 overs. The West Indies need 319 more runs, to chase down a record total.
Neither side will be at their best; New Zealand are down to just two frontline bowlers - Jacob Duffy and Zak Foulkes. The West Indies meanwhile are already four wickets down, with not a lot of batting to come after the current partnership between Shai Hope (116 not out) and Justin Greaves (55 not out).
However, despite Duffy and Foulkes now having to shoulder arguably too great a load in their second test each - after both debuted in a record victory in Zimbabwe earlier this year - the Black Caps trust the pair to get the job done.
“I’m confident we have the quality,” said bowling coach Jacob Oram. “Matt Henrys aren’t grown on trees around the country, but we have the quality, and the experience of our white ball campaigns going back 12 months.
“Guys have got that international experience and, I would hope, know they belong here and can perform a job for us. It’s a big ask for these guys, but they have the confidence.
“They’re not going to be able to step into Matt Henry’s shoes, but if we can get them working to their strengths, and we have a nice game plan with good field sets around them, we’ll be ok.”
The West Indies, meanwhile, know this is their chance. The men from the Caribbean haven’t won a test on New Zealand soil since 1995.
Sides much better collectively than this have come to Aotearoa, and left empty handed.
But playing as a side worth more than the sum of its individual parts, led by Hope in particular, there is belief among the tourists that the injuries to Henry and Smith have opened the door for them to make history.
“New Zealand are a top test team, they’re going to come with their plans, they’re going to come with their fight,” said Roach. “But they’re two bowlers down. We have a perfect opportunity to do something special tomorrow.
“Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. We’ll plan properly, let’s have the right mindset, be professional and the win will take care of itself.
“[Henry] not being in the team is a big advantage for us at the moment. I hope he gets better soon.
“We’ll have a discussion as a batting unit, and try to make a good plan. Hopefully it works out tomorrow.”
The highest successful chase at Hagley Oval is 285, achieved by the Black Caps against Sri Lanka in 2023.
Regardless of what happens on the final day at Hagley Oval, the bigger picture isn’t kind to New Zealand’s bowling stocks over the coming weeks.
Should Henry and Smith both be ruled out for the rest of the series, they’d join Will O’Rourke in being unavailable for the rest of the test series. One-test fast bowler Ben Sears has also been ruled out, due to playing club cricket in Melbourne to play his way back to fitness.
However, also on the mend is Kyle Jamieson. The 30-year-old is also on the comeback from injury, and is this week playing his first red ball match since suffering a stress fracture of the back at the start of last year.
Calling Jamieson into the squad would be earlier than the Black Caps would have wanted. But, if desperate times call for desperate measures, the team know what they have on their hands.
“Kyle, as we know, is damn skillful,” added Oram. “We also know that he’s a guy who over the last 12-18 months has had a few niggles himself, and one major one with his back.
“The bigger picture is really important as well. We want to win every game, that’s a given. But at the same time it’s not to the detriment of that longer term picture.
“But if he’s deemed ready to go, 100% [I’d want] to have Kyle Jamieson with us. Let’s see how things pan out.”
Alex Powell is a sports journalist for the NZ Herald. He has been a sports journalist since 2016.