Look at the programme. The next world championships are in Australia, where the Ferns have never managed a successful world championship attempt. The Diamonds will also have the advantage of home-crowd support at the 2018 Commonwealth Games on the Gold Coast.
But it's not just about location. New Zealand have yet to come up with a way to negate the threat of Caitlin Bassett, who has improved out of sight over the last three years. The 1.92m shooter was the point of difference in 2011 and again unstoppable in Glasgow.
There are other talented shooters waiting in the wings behind Bassett, along with the unique skills of Natalie Medhurst at goal attack.
In contrast, New Zealand have several issues, especially in the shooting circle.
Van Dyk is gone, and will be hard to replace. There are several promising youngsters but it will be a few years before we know if they can foot it in the international arena.
Cathrine Latu made great progress in the 2013 Constellation Cup but seemed to go backwards in this year's ANZ Championship and Joanne Harten (Magic) and Jhaniele Fowler (Steel) take up two shooting spots at local franchises.
There's an ever-increasing reliance on Maria Tutaia, who will be 31 by the time of the next Commonwealth Games. The amazingly durable Leana de Bruin turned 37 last month and others such as Jodi Brown (33), Joline Henry (31), Anna Harrison (30), Liana Leota (29), Casey Kopua (29) can't go on forever.
New Zealand's best chance at glory was in Singapore three years ago when they were at their peak against an experienced Aussie side, but some moments of indecision in the dying minutes cost them dearly.