Anything goes in NPC semi mix

Seven teams are still alive in the NPC as the teams round the bend into the straight for the final time.

Who will be standing at semifinal time on the weekend of October 15-16? Canterbury, for sure, Auckland, too, barring a monumental cockup. But after that things get a bit interesting.

There are a few rules you can adhere to in figuring out who might be in the mix at the end.

In the past four years, the fourth-placed qualifier for the semifinals has never got fewer than 28 points.

Last year, Waikato had 30; in 2003 Wellington and Auckland finished on 28 in third and fourth respectively; Otago got 29 in 2002 and Auckland 30 a year earlier.

As always, there is an exception. In 2000, Taranaki made the last four with just 23 points, but that was a remarkable conclusion with teams positioned fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh covered by only two points.

For those of a superstitious mind, there is a big advantage in finishing top in the round robin. In four of the last five years, that team have made the final, the exception being Otago missing out in 2003.

The only team to qualify from fourth and win the final in that time were Auckland, also two years ago.

Statistically, the worst spot to finish is second.

Sure, Canterbury won it last year from round-robin runnerup, but in the previous four seasons, Auckland, North Harbour, Canterbury and Waikato all tumbled in the semifinal from second spot.

The field will reduce by two if Taranaki and Waikato lose this weekend.

CANTERBURY

25 points, 1st
v Wellington (h) tonight
v Otago (a) October 1
v Auckland (h) Oct 8

Semifinal prospects: For most first division teams, this would be a tricky run home. But nothing seems too hard for the defending champions, whose only hiccup so far has been a 23-all draw with North Harbour at Albany in round three.

Young players are getting integrated while the All Blacks are away, and they have the best goalkicker in the (NPC) business in Ben Blair.

They are now so well placed they could just about afford to lose to Wellington and Otago and still be sure of their place by beating Auckland.

The best thing about sitting top at this stage is they are not reliant on other results going their way. They will want to make sure of being at home for the semifinals.

AUCKLAND

24 points, 2nd
v Northland (h) tomorrow
v Wellington (h) Friday
v Canterbury (a) Oct 8

Prospects: Victory tomorrow over bottom side Northland will all but ensure a semifinal place, with the likelihood of being at home.

Auckland have been big entertainers this season, their 22 tries bettered only by Wellington's 25. Players such as Tasesa Lavea, Isa Nacewa and Brent Ward at the back, and Brad Mika, young lock Kurtis Haiu and Angus Macdonald have been consistently strong performers up front.

The players have spoken of enjoying their rugby and, until last weekend in New Plymouth, it was showing.

Taranaki gave Auckland a decent thumping, but there is enough credit built up over the first five rounds to ensure they'll be running around on semifinals weekend.

WELLINGTON

20 points, 3rd
v Canterbury (a) tonight
v Auckland (a) Friday
v Taranaki (a) Oct 7

Prospects: On paper, the most difficult run-in of the leading contenders. There's every chance Wellington could go pointless over the next three weeks.

Forget their half century against Southland. They won't do that again this season.

Jerry Collins is back tonight, and Piri Weepu and Conrad Smith have already returned, which won't hurt. Ma'a Nonu and Thomas Waldrom are playing powerful, biting rugby and Jimmy Gopperth is a perky playmaker.

But it is conceivable they could head to New Plymouth at the start of the final round robin weekend needing five points to make the playoffs.

OTAGO

19 points, 4th
v Taranaki (h) tomorrow
v Canterbury (h) Oct 1
v Waikato (a) Oct 8

Prospects: Must win tomorrow and get something from Canterbury's trip south. Depending on Waikato's next two games, the October 8 clash in Hamilton is shaping as critical. Otago won't want to be arriving in Moolooville needing a five-pointer.

Anton Oliver is back for the finish, Carl Hayman returns for tomorrow's Carl Hoeft finale and although they have been a bit ordinary at times, Otago will fancy themselves.

They have Nick Evans to kick goals and run them round, tough backline workers in Seilala Mapusua, Neil Brew and Matt Saunders, and James Ryan and Craig Newby, along with Hayman as influential figures in the pack.

Otago have conceded only nine tries - the joint best defensive performers with Canterbury. Scoring them has been a shade problematic. They need them now.

NORTH HARBOUR

17 points, 5th
v Waikato (h) Sunday
v Taranaki (h), Oct 1
v Southland (a) Oct 9

Prospects: Not the worst chance for a rails run. Have confounded those who wrote them off as fly-by-nighters.

Got a wake-up call from Auckland in round one, were poor in Dunedin in round five but have been good otherwise, and bounced back impressively to drown Bay of Plenty's season out in Rotorua last week.

The pack has gone particularly well, with a sound scrum, good lineout and their 131 turnovers won is the best in the competition.

Luke McAlister, Rua Tipoki and the in-form Anthony Tuitavake are the core of a young backline, which has pace out wide. If they beat Waikato on Sunday, they'll be right in the hunt.

WAIKATO

13 points, 6th
v North Harbour (a) Sunday
v Bay of Plenty (h) Oct 1
v Otago (h) Oct 8

Prospects: A simple equation. Warren Gatland's men must win all three games, and get bonus points. The 28-point cutoff rule says so.

They've lost their way after winning their first three games. Could consider themselves unlucky to have come away pointless from their last two matches against Auckland and Canterbury, after contributing plenty to a couple of big nights out.

Experience-wise, they are light in some areas, but there's enough old hands dotted about that they should not be in this position.

Jono Gibbes' is gone for the season, with a recurrence of his foot problem. Still, with players the calibre of Marty Holah, Stephen Donald, Liam Messam, Byron Kelleher, Steven Bates, David Hill, Deacon Manu, Keith Lowen, Sitiveni Sivivatu and Sosene Anesi running around, getting 15 points is not out of the question.

The season effectively ends if they fall at Albany on Sunday.

TARANAKI

13 points, 7th
v Otago (a) tomorrow
v North Harbour (a) Oct 1
v Wellington (h) Oct 7

Prospects: Remote. As with Waikato, they must take 15 points and the hardest third of that equation could be at Carisbrook tomorrow.

Paul Tito was a shattered captain after Taranaki's third straight slim defeat, to Southland in round five. The late intercept try by Southland's Watisone Lotawa had been preceded by a Bay of Plenty penalty five minutes from the end, and a missed dropped goal in Christchurch which would have won the Ranfurly Shield.

With a smidgen of luck, Taranaki could have been sitting third. You can bet they enjoyed whipping the big-city boys last weekend.

As usual, they boast a tough pack, who have won more turnovers than anyone bar North Harbour, and some unheralded but useful backs, including James Hilgendorf and Lifeimi Mafi. Better than their position suggests.