International air travel could be back to near normal more quickly than many expect, a leading aviation professional suggests.
While the unprecedented disruption to airlines around the world in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic is deeply concerning Ashok Poduval, CEO of Massey University's School of Aviation, says he believes the industry "will pick up again, possibly sooner than predicted."
He says global aviation organisations are working hard on plans to not only reduce the virus risk to passengers but to convince governments of the need to phase in measures for a safe return to domestic and international air travel.
Poduval believes students taking up study in aviation from 2021 will be critical to a recovery. "We will need more employees with the skills and critical thinking necessary to make contributions as the industry rebuilds and our courses - and connections with the aviation sector - will help prepare and position them to do so."
He says there is no doubt business models will emerge requiring new entrepreneurial skills and while the job market may be difficult right now, he is confident the industry will well on the road to recovery by the time the 2021 intake of students graduate in three to four years.
Poduval's comments come as the news for aviation seemingly worsens by the day. Late last month Air New Zealand announced it was laying off more than 900 international cabin crew (bringing to 4000 the number of roles lost by the airline since the start of the pandemic), while globally the picture is equally as grim.
The International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) says airports had a 28.4 per cent decline in global passenger volumes in the first quarter of 2020, a figure it expects will climb to over 50 per cent by the end of the year. It predicts airlines and airports combined face a potential loss of revenue of well over US$400 billion as a result.
But Poduval says he expects aviation will eventually "normalise" again much as it did after other global crises like 9/11 and SARS-1. Already, he suggests, there are encouraging signs. Domestic flights here, and in places like China and Vietnam, have returned close to normal while Singapore has created an 'air travel bubble' with Hong Kong which exempts travellers from quarantine requirements.
"There is also a lot of aggressive research going on to create new multi-layered airline procedures around health protocols and testing for Covid-19 so the public can have confidence to travel again," he says.
Among these are ICAO recommendations for the introduction of a global baseline health safety protocol to protect passengers and aviation workers from the virus and an International Air Transport Association (IATA) call for airport tests for departing international passengers to replace quarantine.
Speaking recently to Reuters Television, IATA director general Alexandre de Juniac said antigen tests that look for coronavirus in swabs from people's noses and throats can be administered rapidly by non-medical staff. One example is an antigen test developed by German diagnostic specialist Qiagen which can be conducted in airports and have results in 15 minutes.
Meanwhile, Poduval says, careers in aviation are not all about flying. There are a wide range of opportunities such as management, logistics, air safety investigation, customer service and sales and marketing.
One student about to complete his third and final year of study for a Bachelor of Aviation Management is an example. Patrick Gainsford, who initially wanted to be a pilot, is now hoping to work in airport management when he graduates.
"I realise it will be a challenging job market but at the same time I think there is a lot of opportunity (in the light of Covid-19) to reevaluate and develop new business systems," he says. "I would also like to see a focus on sustainability and how airport companies can operate in more sustainable ways."
Gainsford, who is studying at Massey's campus in Palmerston North, says he has always had a passion for aviation: "My Dad travelled a lot in his job and I spent a lot of time in airports when I was young; I was always intrigued by these metal machines (aircraft) and how they stayed in the air.
"My study at Massey has given me a huge foundation and perspective on the breadth of the industry," he says. "When people think of aviation they think pilots and aircrew. But it's a massive industry with other sides to it people are not always aware of."
Gainsford says he is considering studying for a Master of Aviation (this would involve a further 18 months of study) before looking for a job.
Massey's Bachelor of Aviation Management course offers an introduction to various aspects of the industry like airline strategic management and airport operational management, while the Master of Aviation provides a more critical and in-depth understanding. Students are also able to work in the industry as part of their study.
The school's aviation centre is based in Palmerston North and is equipped with technologically-advanced training aircraft and facilities such as flight simulators.
For more information go to: Massey.ac.nz/studyaviation