The Kiwi home in 2050: Changing places

A major report looking into the future of housing in New Zealand reveals why members of the next generation may have to change their aspirations about the type of home they want to own, and whether they will a own a home at all.

The Kiwi dream of home ownership is still alive and well, even though it's becoming more distant. So says the Centre for Housing Research, Aotearoa New Zealand (CHRANZ) and Building Research after an extensive investigation of housing aspirations and attainment in New Zealand.

While almost seven in 10 households own their own homes, in 10 years' time this will drop to just over six in 10 (even lower in Auckland), and continue dropping until 2050, the study calculates.

The study also anticipates a crunch in supply, particularly for rental units: by 2050 New Zealand will need another 206,000 rental homes to meet the growth in the number of households, as well as another 101,000 owner-occupied homes. This means around 13,000 more homes a year, a number that is only just being met today.

Yet Kiwis continue to dream big. In the face of increasing evidence from planners that urban and suburban density is better for preventing sprawl by lowering infrastructure costs such as roading and utilities, most people still want to live in large houses on large sections. The study picks up the anecdotal evidence often cited by oldies: that young people today are not prepared to lower their expectations to match the financial realities. Young families aspire to modern, maintenance-free houses in good suburbs, close to schools and work and will not compromise to meet their smaller budgets. The days of do-up housing are fading as people admit they do not have the time, skills or inclination to renovate.

Time and again, people told the study's focus groups that multi-unit dwellings - apartments and townhouse complexes - are the compromise for people unable to own a detached house. Only an emerging hard core of urban dwellers are happy to see renting as a lifestyle choice to give them traffic congestion-free access to city work and play. The study did find some Auckland families with school-aged children have traded off home ownership against the kids' schooling. These families are willing to sacrifice owning a home in order to rent in a more prestigious school district, making the most of a renter's flexibility and the ability to live in locations where owning may be unaffordable.

But the study's authors claim that sustaining housing supply will require increases in medium density housing, which is not what the average Kiwi aspires to. They also see that changes will need to be made to both national and local government (especially district plans) to achieve a robust, long-term housing environment. They call for much higher levels of private investment to fund new housing, especially rental housing.

In the rental market, there is some good news for good landlords. Tenants who enjoy a good landlord and great location are much less likely to shift (with some tenants even keen to buy their rental home). The study is less flattering about the professionalism of some landlords, particularly those who do not seem to budget for property maintenance. But this is common to most property owners, according to an earlier study by CHRANZ, quoting Building Research New Zealand (BRANZ). By its reckoning, households should spend about $4000 per year on home maintenance and upkeep; in reality the average is $1500.

This first large-scale glimpse into home ownership and dreams gives a tantalising picture of New Zealanders looking backwards to the housing glory days of the 1950s. But to meet Kiwi housing needs by 2050, much investment, better research and a change in aspirations are called for.

To read the CHRANZ report, go to www.chranz.co.nz