Labour could lead a Government if an election were held today, the latest political poll shows.

National's support has tumbled by four points and Labour has gained by almost the same amount in the latest TV3 Reid Research poll.

Labour, the Greens and Mana would have 61 seats in a 123-seat Parliament; and National and Act would have 58.

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power if its three current MPs kept their electorate seats and if the Greens and Mana went with Labour. It wouldn't matter whether United Future went with the left or right.


The poll of 1000 eligible voters was conducted between May 29 and June 6, the height of the Government's Budget crisis over increased teacher- pupil ratios which it eventually dumped on Thursday.

The results for party vote are National 45.8 (down 4); Labour 33.2 (up 3.8); Greens 14.4 (up 0.3); New Zealand First 2.8 (up 0.5); Maori Party 1.4 (down 0.2); Mana 1 (no change); Act 0.5 (up 0.3); and United Future 0 (no change).

The Conservative party which is not in Parliament polled 1.1 (no change).

Prime Minister John Key who has been overseas for a fortnight, has dropped in the preferred Prime Minister stakes by 3.7 to 40.5 per cent. Labour leader David Shearer is up by 1.9 to 12.3; New Zealand First leader Winston Peters is up 0.2 to 4.8 and Greens co-leader Russel Norman is up 1.8 to 4 per cent.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 per cent.