The former Ministry of Economic Development agreed that prices of the minerals were on the rise and "super profits" were in prospect, though the ministry's estimates suggested the company's were "off the bullish end of the chart".
As a state-owned enterprise, Solid Energy did not think it should need to compete for rights to these minerals. It wanted preferential access so that New Zealand might gain the greatest commercial return from the resources. The Treasury disagreed, advising ministers that granting Solid Energy preferential rights would "freeze out competition and chill inward investment in these sectors as well as probably breach international trade agreements".
But the Treasury believed the value of the resources could be tapped, and the Government's financial risk reduced, if private interests were brought into play and the Crown company faced competition for access to the resources.
In 2010, when the Government was still forming the mixed ownership model it took to the 2011 election, this was too much to contemplate. It rejected the notion of the national resources company, encouraged Solid Energy to develop its existing resources, including lignite and "unconventional" gas extraction, but offered no additional investment.
Within two years, China's steel production had slowed, coal prices slumped, Solid Energy's investments were not paying off and a share float is no longer in prospect. The board's plans might have been "off the bullish end of the charts" but private investors ought to be invited to make that judgment.
When global energy demand recovers, the Government should sell whatever stake it takes to make the most of the country's untapped wealth.