What ‘net zero’ migration means for New Zealanders and the economy - The Front Page

Westpac has forecast net migration will hit net zero next year, after reaching a record high just last year. Photo / Getty Images

New Zealand’s population is poised to come to a standstill next year, just as the housing market is expected to show signs of revival.

NZ Herald business editor-at-large Liam Dann said that could put a dampener on hopes for a recovery in the apartment market, which already had an oversupply.

“Some of those immigrants are apartment buyers, and so if you don’t have them coming in, it could have an impact there,” he said.

Westpac has forecast net migration will hit net zero next year, after reaching a record high just last year.

“It’s quite a dramatic shift from 136,000 coming in to maybe a net zero and presents probably as a little bit of a headwind,” Dann said.

Net zero migration means the number of migrants arriving in the country will equal those leaving the country for good.

“Within that, that would imply that at some point we’re going to see some minuses come through on the monthly numbers,” Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said.

Gordon said there had been a “notable pick-up” in immigrants on student visas or work visas leaving New Zealand soon after they got here.

“I think that’s probably the biggest change that we’ve seen this year.”

A lot of them arrive with the view of staying in New Zealand long-term, but this wasn’t always the case, he said.

“If they’re tied to a certain employer and the employer is laying people off or maybe going bust, then they may be forced to go home again and that’s what we are seeing,” he said.

On top of this were the record number of Kiwi citizens who were leaving the country, in search of better job prospects.

Gordon said Australia this was playing into our unemployment numbers.

“I think the strength of the Australian jobs market is acting as a bit of a release valve for unemployment here. If we didn’t have that, if people for some reason weren’t allowed to leave the country, we would probably have a higher unemployment rate than we see now,” Gordon said.

Dann said New Zealand economy has been on a rollercoaster, which was reflected in migration numbers.

However, he said tweaking government policy settings could help.

“According to the Prime Minister, he’s softening a bit on the idea that if we have other investment criteria tied to residential housing, they might be able to get some agreement on some international investment in residential housing. The Prime Minister’s talked a lot about getting more money into the country and if the money’s coming here, that sort of fills the gap, he said.

Listen to the full episode to hear more about what falling migration might mean for New Zealanders.

The podcast is presented by Susie Nordqvist, a former presenter and producer for TVNZ and Newshub. She began her career as a newspaper reporter and was a finalist for best newsreader at this year’s NZ Radio & Podcast Awards for her work at Newstalk ZB.

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