The Bab-el-Mandeb is a strait between Djibouti and Yemen, linking the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea through the Gulf of Aden.
University of Otago international relations professor Robert Patman told The Front Page that Saudi Arabia, in particular, would be nervous if this strait were to be compromised.
“When the Iranians began to impose a blockade, or at least a partial blockade, on the Strait of Hormuz, because Saudi Arabia’s a big [US] ally and because some of its oil infrastructure was damaged, they started moving much of their oil exports not through Hormuz, which they were doing before February 28, but they transferred the product across Saudi Arabia to ports which connect with the Red Sea.
“They started not using the Strait of Hormuz, but they started using the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb to export their products. If Iran backed up its threat [to end shipping in the Red Sea], it would paralyse Saudi Arabia’s ability to export oil.
" We shouldn’t underestimate the importance of this threat. The Iranians believe time is on their side. They’ve survived the first 40 days of an onslaught from one superpower and a regional superpower.
“They’re quite prepared, if necessary, to disrupt the global economy and if they impede traffic going through the Strait of Bab-el-Mandeb, I think that would be a really serious blow to the global economy.
" We’re already seeing the consequences of restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz. If another vital waterway through the Red Sea is blocked, I think that would really cause enormous problems," he said.
Trump has also claimed that China is “very happy” about the situation – that was after Beijing labelled the US blockade “dangerous”.
He also said that China President Xi Jinping had agreed not to send weapons to Iran.
“I think one of the reasons China is becoming more active is that, firstly, they have a huge stake; they are energy-hungry and that is to say, they take 80% of Iran’s oil exports. So, they’re deeply impacted by what’s happening now,” Patman said.
" Many American commentators depict China as if it’s poised to take over the world and upend the global market economy. In fact, China is already a big winner of the global market system. So it’s not gonna destroy something that works for it.
“They were a key player in the establishment of the ceasefire talks in Islamabad, and they’ve downplayed their own role. But it was interesting that President Trump publicly acknowledged that China made the talks possible.
“I think China has shown that it’s got some steel in its nice smile.”
Listen to the full episode to hear more about:
- Escalation fears
- Diplomatic hopes
- China’s role
- UN Security Council.
The Front Page is a daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, available to listen to every weekday from 5pm. The podcast is presented by Chelsea Daniels, an Auckland-based journalist with a background in world news and crime/justice reporting who joined NZME in 2016.
You can follow the podcast at iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify or wherever you get your podcasts.
