Weather: 'Cone of uncertainty' predicted for northern NZ as cyclone forms near New Caledonia

Some regions may be hit with windy easterly conditions along with "very dangerous" beach and marine conditions. Photo / John Stone

Just a few weeks after Cyclone Dovi battered areas of New Zealand, a new tropical pressure system may be making its way to the country.

Later this week, a tropical storm may form as low pressure shifts from the Coral Sea area towards New Caledonia.

WeatherWatch head forecaster Philip Duncan said, unlike Cyclone Dovi, this low-pressure zone has a more complicated journey due to powerful high pressure over southern New Zealand.

"Storms and lows weaken when they run into high pressure, especially powerful high pressure, so the stronger the southern high is then the lower the chances are of this potential storm making it to New Zealand," he said.

The next South Pacific tropical cyclone for the season may form this week about 2000km northwest of New Zealand. Photo / WeatherWatch

Duncan said modelling suggests the low will lie north of the country but may not come inland.

"Meaning a windy easterly 'squash zone' of air pressure may set up for the top of the country later this week, but damaging winds and stormy weather overall may be less likely on land and more likely out at sea."

Due to the high-pressure zone moving in, the next week ahead is set to be drier than average for most areas of the country.

However, if the low moves closes some areas may experience windy easterly conditions along with "very dangerous" beach and marine conditions. Some modelling still shows northern NZ is within the "cone of uncertainty".

British modelling shows the storm - a likely cyclone - "stuck" south of Vanuatu, unable to move into NZ. Photo / WeatherWatch

Compared to ex-tropical Cyclone Dovi, Duncan said his cyclone may centre over southern New Zealand.

"For this next tropical low the high-pressure zone looks to be centred over southern NZ and that acts like an invisible brick wall in the sky to really slow down storms, a bit like how a strong sea wall stops big storm waves from advancing onto land," he said.