Weather: School holidays end on stormy note; relatively warm temperatures on way

The school holidays will end on a wet and stormy note, and forecasters are warning of potentially severe weather about the north and east of the North Island on Friday.

The changeable forecasts also showed the potential for relatively warm temperatures as a tropical airmass descends from the Pacific Ocean.

Wednesday will see a band of rain barrel over the country before skies clear on Thursday and open the way for more bouts of heavy rain from Friday.

MetService has warned those in Auckland, Northland, Coromandel, Bay of Plenty, Gisborne and Hawke’s Bay ahead of Friday’s rain, telling people to keep up with the latest forecasts as the situation evolves.

In the meantime, MetService forecasted more fog and low cloud for Auckland and elsewhere on Wednesday morning, matching today’s conditions where at least 24 flights were disrupted.

Wednesday in Auckland was expected to see possibly heavy rain develop in the morning before they ease to isolated showers by the afternoon. A high of 14C and an overnight low of 8C was forecasted.

MetService said Thursday should be fine. The high temperature was forecasted to be 17C and the low was expected to dip to 10C.

Rain should develop throughout Friday. The end of the working week was tipped to reach 17C, falling to 11C, and these temperatures should continue until at least Monday.

The heavy falls were credited to two low-pressure systems converging over New Zealand. One system lingering over the Tasman Sea was expected to move closer to the country on Friday while “another deeper low” from off Vanuatu was slated to pass over, MetService said.

Moving through Saturday, MetService expected the low-pressure system to move towards the Chatham Islands, allowing the rain about the North Island to ease into the evening.

🌴 An air mass from Vanuatu is bringing warmer, more humid conditions to NZ this week, illustrated here by dew point (amount of moisture in the air)...

While it won't suddenly turn tropical, you may notice warmer nights & a tinge of spring in the air when the sun is shining 🌤️ pic.twitter.com/8FRr7UEgNf

— NIWA Weather (@NiwaWeather) July 15, 2024

MetService meteorologist John Laws told the Herald this week would “have lots of cloud, a lot more moisture [than last week] and some warmer temperatures”.

Laws said: “It’s the weekend that we’re really looking out for. With this new area of low-pressure [on Friday], it is still a couple of days to go and there is some variation, but it really is worth keeping an eye on the forecasts.”

MetService’s severe weather forecast for Saturday read: “For ... Hawke’s Bay, eastern Taupo, Bay of Plenty, eastern Waikato, Coromandel Peninsula, Auckland and Northland, there is low confidence that a rain warning will be in place.”

And Sunday’s severe weather forecast read: “There is moderate confidence that a heavy rainfall warning will be needed in Tairāwhiti/Gisborne and northern Hawke’s Bay.”

Raphael Franks is an Auckland-based reporter who covers breaking news. He joined the Herald as a Te Rito cadet in 2022.