US election: Todd Muller’s view from the Bay of Plenty

US Vice President Kamala Harris during a campaign event in Madison, Wisconsin, US, on Friday, Sept. 20, 2024. (Photo by Brett Johnsen/NurPhoto) (Photo by Brett Johnsen / NurPhoto / NurPhoto via AFP)

Todd Muller, a US political junkie, former leader of the National Party, and MP for Bay of Plenty from 2014 to 2023, has never seen America as divided as it is now.

On November 5, (Wednesday, NZT) the United States will elect Kamala Harris or Donald Trump as President.

Muller attended the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Ohio, in 2016 when Trump was first nominated.

Trump had not yet wholly overrun the Republican Party as he has eight years later, Muller said.

“It was still very much the country club Republicans,” he said.

“Like the Rotarians with a blue blazer, white shirt, beige pants.”

Todd Muller, former leader of the National Party, is a self-described US politics junkie. He visited the Republican National Convention in 2016. Photo / Alex Cairns

The Republican Party has now been entirely consumed with Make America Great Again (Maga) and started to change the political landscape of the US.

So much had changed that George W Bush’s former Vice President Dick Cheney could no longer support Trump, disapproving of his disregard for America’s institutions and traditions.

“There are many high-profile Republicans who are doing that, including many who worked for Donald Trump,” Muller said.

Trump had done an excellent job of tapping into the traditional blue-collar base of the Democratic Party, stoking fears around immigration and the economy.

“Trump has a remarkable ability to talk to the fears of America.”

The current change was not the first time the US America had seen such a political swing — in the 1980s, Ronald Regan captured many Democrats during his campaign.

“That did not last long, though.”

The US was a country of 350 million people and from the outside it could be easy to see it through the lens of social media, Muller said.

“There is great anxiety across the country.”

Trump’s stoking of fear around immigrants — and his threats to round them up — was unacceptable, he said. However, Muller believed that comparing him with Hitler only worsened the toxic political atmosphere in the country.

In New Zealand, there is about 2000 members of Democrats Abroad likely to vote, according to Hamilton-based Democrats Abroad chairman James A Winston III.

“This does not account for any other registered voters who may be Republicans, Independents, or Libertarians,” he said.

On November 5, voters will go to the polls in 50 states and five voting territories.

Each has its election bylaws and standards for counting the ballots.

“In Michigan, they have begun counting and processing absentee ballots while others such as Texas do not begin counting early and absentee ballots until after polls close in the state,” Winston said

Overseas votes can vary, and some have to mail their ballots home via an online portal or fax.

When Donald Trump faced Hillary Clinton in 2016, Winston said there was an immediate change in policy and the US’s global standing.

From 2016 to 2020, Americans experienced Trump’s leadership firsthand, and allies and adversaries gained insights on engaging with his administration.

“In October of 2020, Trump told the domestic terrorist group the Proud Boys to ‘stand back and stand by,’” he said.

“In the current election cycle, he has threatened to prosecute the enemy within and has included mainstream politicians who oppose him and the press who report his actions and words.”

“Vice President Kamala Harris would be a smooth transition from the current administration into the direction she would like to take the country.”

Voting was just as important overseas as on American soil. Many people living overseas still had friends, family, and financial interests in the country, many of which would be impacted by the outcome of this election.

It is not just the presidency that is up for reelection; Americans will have 20 to 40 races to vote in.

“A third of the US senators are up for election every two years, as are all congressional representatives,” Winston said.

“Many states will have elections for governor this round along with other state elected positions, and even counties and cities may have elections coinciding with the presidential election.”

The US presidency is chosen by the winner of the Electoral College.

It comprises 538 electors — 435 from the House of Representatives, three delegates, and 100 Senators — and a candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win.

Political parties select electors, and each state legislature appoints them. Most states and Washington DC use a “winner-takes-all” system, awarding all electoral votes to the candidate who wins the majority of the popular vote in that state.

Established as a compromise at the US Constitutional Convention, the Electoral College has faced over 700 reform proposals in the past 200 years, including moving to a national popular vote system, but none have been successful.

- SunLive