Three months to disaster for the Greens

By JOHN ARMSTRONG

From bottom line to rock bottom in just 12 weeks.

Yesterday's confidence-and-supply agreement between Labour and United Future is a disaster for the Greens.

Their three-month-old ultimatum on the lifting of the moratorium on the commercial release of GM organisms has well and truly backfired.

But the jury is out on whether Labour's deal with right-leaning Peter Dunne is a disaster for the centre-left as a whole.

There was no sense of jubilation during the signing in Parliament's Legislative Council chamber. Helen Clark looked like she was sucking lemons in sucking up to Mr Dunne.

But looks are deceptive. She has secured a bargain-basement deal that contains no significant concessions to United Future.

So cheap a deal, in fact, that the Greens' bottom line on GM in return for backing a Labour-led government on crucial confidence motions must have looked even more expensive.

With United Future's nine MPs in her pocket, the Prime Minister could afford to play hardball in post-election negotiations with the Greens by suddenly making the lifting of the moratorium her bottom line.

Tit-for-tat stalemate.

So no agreement. The Greens can only sit and watch as the moratorium goes in October next year.

They have shut themselves out of government for another three years. They are in an even weaker position than during the last term. This time there will be no policy concessions from Labour in return for propping up the Government, no Budget money to spend on Green initiatives.

Instead, the Greens find themselves hostage on Labour's left.

When Labour needs their support on legislation which United Future opposes, Helen Clark knows she can rely on the Greens because they will be ideologically-bound to support it.

Yesterday co-leaders Jeanette Fitzsimons and Rod Donald talked of being "free" and "independent" to strengthen their party long-term.

But their next glimpse of power will not come until 2005 - presuming Labour can win a third term for the first time since the 1940s.

The centre-right will probably return to power after that, leaving the Greens out in the cold for another good few years.

That's the pessimist's view. The optimist might say the spat between Labour and the Greens over GM simply has to run its course.

Once the moratorium is lifted, relations can be rebuilt. That both parties kept talking for a week after it was obvious they could not strike a deal is an acknowledgment of that necessity.

But acrimony lingers.

Jeanette Fitzsimons accuses Labour of sacrificing the centre-left's agenda just for the sake of lifting the moratorium. And there is deep unease in Labour ranks about being linked to what are seen as a bunch of holy-rollers.

But United Future is unlikely to nudge Labour to the right.

First, Labour is already pretty conservative, particularly in terms of economic management.

Second, Labour is not going into coalition with United Future. Mr Dunne will remain outside the Cabinet room.

He will have about as much success in pulling Labour to the right as the Alliance had in pulling Labour to the left. More likely, having sucked him up, Labour will chew him over and spit him out when not needed.

Full text of coalition agreement

United Future Agreement

Full election coverage

Graphic: Seats in the 47th Parliament

Full election results

Election links:
The parties, policies, electoral information, and more