The Front Page: Is NZ ready for what living with Covid actually means?

Welcome to the first 15-minute episode of our new daily podcast, The Front Page, where senior journalist Damien Venuto goes behind the headlines to grill newsmakers and journalists on the big stories of the day. The Front Page will be released at 5am every weekday morning - offering you insights and context on the major issues and topics of interest. You can listen to The Front Page above, and find it on iHeartRadio, or wherever you get your podcasts.

The Government's expected announcement this week on the rollback of vaccine passes and mandates is another warning that the nation will have to get used to the idea of living with Covid.

This is in line with moves being made all around the world, as countries loosen restrictions in an attempt to return to some semblance of the normality we once knew.

In the first episode of the Herald's new daily podcast The Front Page, senior writer Derek Cheng explains why this will be easier said than done.

He says that living with Covid ultimately means coming to terms with the deaths of hundreds of people as the Omicron wave runs its full course.

"The current modelling [estimates] fatalities as somewhere between 250 and 300," Cheng says.

"The peak has already hit Auckland, but it is still yet to peak in other parts of the country.

"We've also seen overseas that older populations are impacted more the longer the outbreak continues. So the latest model actually accounts for the virus moving among older populations more. If that happens more than anticipated, then there'll probably be more fatalities than expected."

Months into the Omicron outbreak, more than a thousand people in the United States are dying every day and across Europe infection numbers have hit fresh highs.

Covid infection and death modelling is, of course, a continuously evolving beast, contingent on a number of assumptions and factors that can change as an outbreak progresses. This contributed to Covid-19 Minister Chris Hipkins comparing them to weather reports in an appearance on the Mike Hosking breakfast show earlier this year.

Regardless of whether the ultimate number of deaths sits at 200, 300 or even more, there are some tough decisions families and businesses will have to make in terms of how much appetite they have for risk.

Covid-19 continues to take many lives in the United States. Photo / Getty Images

Many of the latest changes in strategy come amid tough polls for the Labour Government, showing that the race with National is now neck and neck. So are the changes being pushed by shifting public sentiment or are they still informed by what's best from a health perspective?

"There's no doubt that public opinion has swung, especially in areas like MIQ where it seemed so unfair that Kiwis couldn't come home unless they won the MIQ lottery," says Cheng.

"And in the latest political poll, we've seen National overtake Labour – and some of that, you would think, is frustration with the Covid response.

"There's always been pressure to ease restrictions from parts of the economy that have suffered the most, mainly the tourism and hospitality sectors. It's all a matter of where you choose to draw the line, and there's no question that Jacinda Ardern drew her line a lot closer to fewer fatalities.

"Regardless of how much of the change to the Covid response has down to public pressure, living with Covid was always going to be unavoidable once Omicron arrived, just because of how much more infectious it is."

Despite the relaxation of rules so far, many New Zealanders remain conservative in their decision-making processes.

The inner cities still aren't bustling, offices remain empty and hospitality businesses still worry about how many customers might arrive for the next lunch service.

Cheng also notes that while Omicron is a far gentler variant than those that came before, it will still pose enormous risks to some sections of the population.

So this poses the question: is a nation still so concerned about Covid really ready to live with the virus?

"There are no lockdowns anymore but so many people are isolating that inner-city life is suffering – either because they're legally required to, or are choosing to out of a reasonable fear, especially if they live with someone vulnerable," says Cheng.

"It again comes back to where you want to draw that line in the sand. And so far, it seems a lot of people are drawing it where Jacinda Ardern drew it at the start of the pandemic, and that means certain sectors of the economy will continue to be hard hit."

"Even when the rules change, our psychological shift takes a bit longer to catch up – and this is particularly the case for those with older, vulnerable or immune-compromised family members."

• Listen to the full podcast featuring Derek Cheng below

The Front Page is a new daily news podcast from the New Zealand Herald, that will be available to listen to every weekday from 5am.

You can follow the podcast at nzherald.co.nz, iHeartRadio, Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you get your podcasts.