NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather forecasts

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
    • The Great NZ Road Trip
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
    • Cooking the Books
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • What the Actual
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / New Zealand

Tapu Misa: Decline in criminal offending has many causes

Tapu Misa
By Tapu Misa
Columnist ·NZ Herald·
23 Oct, 2011 04:30 PM5 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

Police and Corrections Minister Judith Collins. Photo / APN

Police and Corrections Minister Judith Collins. Photo / APN

Tapu Misa
Opinion by Tapu Misa
Tapu Misa is a co-editor at E-Tangata and a former columnist for the New Zealand Herald
Learn more

Police and Corrections Minister Judith Collins wasn't shy about stepping boldly forward to claim some of the credit for our falling crime rate and the drop in the prison muster.

It was all due to our trusty and expanded police force, she held, and her Government's "get tough" policies, including the draconian three strikes law which, despite still being in nappies, is claimed by Collins to already be having a deterrent effect on criminals who haven't previously shown any capacity for sensible forward thinking. Her rock-solid evidence for this was "comments that police and Corrections are getting from prisoners".

Success has many fathers, it's said. In past elections, the law and order "debate" was about apportioning blame and pandering to overblown fears that crime was out of control, despite evidence to the contrary. This election, it's more likely to be about claiming credit for the glad tidings from the crime front.

The crime rate is falling, despite the economy; homicide is at a 25-year low (continuing the trend already evident in 2008, when it had halved in 20 years); and, according to the latest Ministry of Justice projections, our almost world champion prison muster, which went up by 45.6 per cent over the last decade, is set to fall by 6.2 per cent in the next 10 years.

Victoria University criminology professor John Pratt attributes the downward trend to demographics - a smaller proportion of our ageing population in the most criminogenic group (males aged 15 to 20) - and better security measures. He says we're mirroring other Western countries, where crime rates have been falling since the mid-1990s.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Why haven't we noticed? Maybe it's the clamour from media darling Garth McVicar and his misnamed Sensible Sentencing Trust, from whence came the discredited former Act MP David Garrett and the push for "three strikes".

In his 2006 book The Great American Crime Decline, law professor Franklin Zimring observes that the US was well into its dramatic 1990s "crime decline" before anybody noticed, and that, remarkably, the early years of falling crime rates were "the most pessimistic about crime in American history".

When it became obvious that the pessimism was misplaced, the hotly debated question was then, "Who gets the credit?" On the West Coast, proponents of California's 1994 three strikes law with its mandatory 25-year prison sentences were claiming victory for tough prison sentences.

But on the East Coast, New York's much-vaunted "broken windows" zero-tolerance policing was winning acclaim for the most dramatic crime fall in the US - twice the national average.

So what was it? Harsh penal laws? Improved police tactics? Legalised abortion? Or the end of the crack cocaine epidemic?

Discover more

Opinion

Tapu Misa: Values that matter lost in the worship of wealth

02 Oct 04:30 PM
Opinion

Tapu Misa: Eyebrows raised as DJ Key gets matey with media

09 Oct 04:30 PM
Opinion

Tapu Misa: Differing values widen the chasm

20 Nov 04:30 PM

Zimring writes that the 1990s were "a cascade of best-case outcomes - high levels of incarceration, a drop in the proportion of the population in high-risk youth categories, and unprecedented prosperity for the same nine years that crime declined".

But his analysis shows that even that confluence of population, economic, and incarceration trends could only account for half the decline. "The available evidence stops well short of a complete or precise account of the causes of decline."

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

That hasn't stopped the extravagant claims, especially from fans of imprisonment.

One problem with the imprisonment theory is that in the US, "massive doses of increased incarceration had been administered throughout the 1970s and 1980s with no consistent and visible impact on crime".

The other is Canada, which saw similar falls in crime without the imprisonment boom.

But even if locking up more people for longer periods reduced crime, California's prison crisis suggests that excessively punitive approach comes at too high a cost. California is now facing bankruptcy, and has been ordered by the Supreme Court to release 30,000 inmates to relieve dangerous overcrowding.

We don't have to go there. The prison population in June this year was 8708; by June 2021 it's projected to fall to 8165. We have accommodation for 9560. According to the Ministry of Justice, the fall reflects the lower crime rate and greater use of diversion by the police for low-level offences.

Roger Brooking, the author of Flying Blind, a new book on the failures of our prison system to rehabilitate or correct, believes we're seeing the result of new sentencing strategies adopted in late 2007, which have led to a 40 to 50 per cent increase in the number of home detention and community-based sentences handed out by judges.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Whatever the reasons, the projections throw serious doubt on the need for the proposed 1000-bed prison in Wiri, which the Greens say is likely to cost at least $300 million.

Finance Minister Bill English was right when he called prisons "a moral and fiscal failure". Back in May, he said plans for the new prison were part of "this Government's policy, and public pressure for tougher sentences and a safer community".

That sounds like abdication. At a time of fiscal belt-tightening, it makes no sense to pour more money into a prison that the evidence suggests we don't need, simply to appease "public pressure".

Tapu.Misa@gmail.com

Save

    Share this article

Latest from New Zealand

New Zealand

Watch: Major highway blocked by slip, Auckland flights delayed as intense storm strikes

09 May 08:09 AM
Crime

Man's 11-day crime spree targets police by spitting and threatening to kill staff

09 May 08:00 AM
New Zealand

Auckland War Memorial Museum closed to public after asbestos discovery

09 May 07:49 AM

One tiny baby’s fight to survive

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from New Zealand

Watch: Major highway blocked by slip, Auckland flights delayed as intense storm strikes

Watch: Major highway blocked by slip, Auckland flights delayed as intense storm strikes

09 May 08:09 AM

Motorists are being warned to expect hazardous driving conditions.

Man's 11-day crime spree targets police by spitting and threatening to kill staff

Man's 11-day crime spree targets police by spitting and threatening to kill staff

09 May 08:00 AM
Auckland War Memorial Museum closed to public after asbestos discovery

Auckland War Memorial Museum closed to public after asbestos discovery

09 May 07:49 AM
'We've had enough': Red Square protest opposes pay equity changes

'We've had enough': Red Square protest opposes pay equity changes

09 May 07:21 AM
Connected workers are safer workers 
sponsored

Connected workers are safer workers 

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • What the Actual
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven CarGuide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP