Cambridge University's Dr Chris Smith on Covid mutations and why the virus doesn't want to kill us. Video / NZME
A UK based clinical virologist has warned that New Zealand's low rates of infection from Covid-19 could make the public more vulnerable when the borders reopen.
However, a local immunology scientist says it is still too early to tell what threat Omicron poses to the vaccinated or previously infected.
A sign reading "stay safe" outside a cafe window in London's financial district this week. Photo / AP
DrChris Smith and Dr Dianne Sika-Paotonu are the guest's on the latest episode of Science Digest, the New Zealand Herald's science podcast hosted by Dr Michelle Dickinson aka Nanogirl.
This episode looks at what threat the Omicron variant of Covid-19 poses to the world, as well as what New Zealanders should keep in mind about the virus will moving around the country over summer.
From Wednesday night, Aucklanders will be able to freely leave the city for the first time since the lockdown began in August.
University of Otago immunologist Dr Dianne Sika-Paotonu. Photo / RNZ
Sika-Paotonu, who is an immunology scientist with the University of Otago, told Science Digest that people should be cautious while moving around the country.
"Although Covid-19 case numbers seem to be coming down in the Auckland region, they are actually heading upwards in other regions.
"We still need to be vigilant, and with respect to travel, perhaps this is just one holiday season where we do want to think about staying local and not travelling as far, as we just need to give a bit of extra time for other parts of the country where vaccination levels aren't as high as others to rise," she said.
Sika-Paotonu suggested that if people do need to travel, they should consider doing so by car rather via plane.
She warned that while the country is not seeing the Omicron variant yet, New Zealand still has the Delta variant spreading in the community, and there is a lot of evidence on the harms of that variant.
Omicron is currently present in over 60 countries, having first been reported in mid-November. Smith, a consulting clinical virologist with Cambridge University and the host of the Naked Science podcast, told Dickinson that it will be a few weeks before we know the full impacts of this variant, such as how infectious it is and how serious those infections are.
However, he said that people should not expect Covid-19 to disappear for good.
"What most people say is that the end point for this is the virus gives some ground and adjusts to circulating alongside us, and we give some ground and get used to it circulating it around is. Which is really that we accept it is here for the long time."
He said there will be lots of cases while the virus establishes itself, but vaccines are incredibly effective at keeping it at bay.
Smith noted that one problem New Zealand faces when the borders reopen is that the country has seen a very small number of infections compared to other countries.
"Whatever New Zealand does, it's going to see a big surge in cases, because the vaccines, while very good at preventing severe disease, like 95 per cent, good which is very good for the performance of a vaccine, what they are less good at is long-term protection against infection. So people catch it, but they don't get ill. Equally, they don't know they've got it, so they give it to other people.
He said that will translate to a very big surge of cases, so what the country will need to do is brace itself and hold its nerve
"Now Omicron's on the scene, we are back to square one. We don't know where we stand, which makes it much harder for New Zealand to plan."
He said while the UK is seeing around 50,000 cases of Covid-19 a day, they are not seeing "50,000 consequences" as a result of vaccines.
Responding to Smith's comments, Sika-Paotonu said New Zealand has had to rely on international research and advice throughout the pandemic due to our low case numbers, but it is too early to know what threat Omicron poses.
"There was some information that was released [recently] that the protection that could be generated after infection from the [Covid-19] virus wouldn't keep you protected from Omicron.
"However, if you had been infected by the virus and had had the vaccine, this would give you stronger protection against the Omicron variant."
She said this is a very quickly changing situation, and noted that she is "thankful" that New Zealand has not seen the same levels of infection and death that other countries have.
