School choice is set to tighten across Auckland as new housing developments force more schools to close their doors against out-of-zone families.
A National Education Growth Plan unveiled yesterdaysays enrolment schemes will be required in the next three years at 103 of the 140 Auckland state schools that still don't have any zoning restrictions.
The new schemes, plus population pressure on the 277 state schools that already have zoning schemes, are likely to drastically reduce parents' choice, forcing most to send their children to the nearest state school.
Zoning is already common in higher-income areas such as Ormiston and Mission Heights, where all schools have zoning schemes, and central Auckland, where 26 of the 27 state schools have zoning restrictions.
But more intensive housing planned in state housing areas is also expected to force zoning schemes in previously lightly zoned or unzoned lower-income areas such as Tāmaki, Northcote, Mt Roskill, Māngere, Ōtara and Manurewa.
Auckland Central MP and former Education Minister Nikki Kaye said the tightening would be "challenging to some communities".
"It means basically nearly every school in Auckland will have an enrolment scheme," she said.
The plan, unveiled by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Education Minister Chris Hipkins, signals a need for 30 new schools in Auckland and 31 across the rest of the country to accommodate 100,000 extra students by 2030 - 60,000 of them in Auckland.
Most of the new schools will be in new suburban developments such as Drury, where four new primary schools and at least one new secondary school are planned.
But the plan also includes new "urban schools" at Takapuna, Manukau and in the Auckland central business district where a new co-educational state secondary school is also expected to be needed beyond 2030.
Immediate funding was announced for one new primary school in the new Milldale development northwest of Silverdale ($20m), expanding Hingaia Peninsula School at Karaka ($5m) and $175m for 255 extra classrooms across 51 schools in Auckland and Northland.
Details for the rest of the country will be announced region by region over the next few weeks.
Plans for Māori-language and special schools have also been left for future announcements after consultation with iwi and families, but the plan says Māori-medium students "are likely to double in Auckland in the next 10 years" from a low base of 3500 now.
The plan also signals a new special school in the Flat Bush area.
The plan includes expanding Waterview School to serve children from a KiwiBuild housing project on Unitec's Mt Albert site and says the Ministry of Education has "commenced discussions with KiwiBuild about the possible need for additional primary provision to serve the Unitec community".
The KiwiBuild project is also expected to force reduced out-of-zone enrolments at Avondale College and Mt Albert Grammar School.
On the North Shore, the plan says only nine out of 21 state schools in Northcote, Glenfield and Birkenhead currently have enrolment schemes because of stable populations, but says: "We know this will change as a result of the regeneration of Northcote."
Similarly in Māngere, Ōtāhuhu and Papatoetoe only 22 out of 32 schools have zoning schemes.
"Other schools have not needed schemes in the past due to low or stable growth, however we know that this will change progressively as growth occurs," the plan says.
New schools planned in Auckland are:
Warkworth North primary: possible land purchase 2019, opens early 2020s, 400 students plus 400 more by 2030.
Warkworth South primary: possible land purchase 2019, opens late 2020s, 400 students.
Orewa Northwest primary: $25m funding announced June 2017, opens 2021, 420 students plus 380 more in late 2020s.
Milldale primary #1: $20m funding announced July 2019, land purchase 2019, opens early 2020s, 370 students plus 330 more in late 2020s.
Milldale secondary: land purchase 2019, opens mid-2020s, 1200 students plus 1300 more by 2030.
Milldale primary #2: land purchase 2019, opens late 2020s, 370 students.
Albany North primary: potential land purchase 2019, opens mid-2020s, 350 students plus 350 more in late 2020s.
Takapuna Metro primary: possible land purchase mid-2020s
Scott Point primary, Hobsonville: funding announced as part of $100m public/private partnership June 2016, changed to $22.8m state build July 2018, opens 2021, 650 students.
Whenuapai #1 primary: land purchase investigation 2020-21, opens mid-2020s, 420 students plus $380 more in late 2020s.
Whenuapai #2 primary: land purchase investigation 2020-21, opens by 2030, 420 students.
Northwest secondary: land purchase investigation 2020-21, opens late 2020s, 800 students.
Red Hills North primary: opens late 2020s, 350 students,
North Massey primary: opens mid-2020s, 390 students plus 380 more in late 2020s.
New Lynn new primary: opens mid-2020s, 420 students plus 280 more in late 2020s.
CBD primary: land purchase 2019, opens mid-2020s, 400 students.
Unitec campus primary, Mt Albert: land purchase 2020-21, opens mid-2020s, 700 students.
Epsom campus primary extension (current Auckland University land): opens mid-2020s, 400 students.
Tāmaki Park primary, in Tāmaki housing development: land purchase 2021-22, opens mid-2020s, 700 students.
Flat Bush new primary: land purchase 2020-21, opens by 2030, 350 students.
Flat Bush new special school: opens mid-2020s
Ōtāhuhu/Māngere East primary: opens mid-2020s, 370 students plus 330 more in late 2020s.
Māngere/Favona primary: opens late 2020s, 300 students plus 200 more by 2030.
Middlemore primary: opens mid-2020s, 350 students.
Manukau urban school: investigate options 2020-21, opens mid-2020s, 500 students.
Takanini new primary: possible land purchase mid-2020s.
Hingaia South primary: $19m funding announced June 2016, opens 2022, 420 students.
Drury West primary: $20m funding announced June 2017, opens 2021, 370 students plus 330 more in late 2020s.
Drury #2 primary: potential land purchase 2020-21, opens late 2020s, 370 students.
Drury #3 and #4 primaries: possible land purchase mid-2020s, open late 2020s, 1090 students.
Drury #1 and #2 secondaries: possible land purchase 2022, open mid-2020s, 1600 students plus 300 more in late 2020s.
Kingseat primary: land purchase 2019, opens mid-2020s, 370 students plus 330 more in late 2020s.
Paerata School relocation/rebuild: $20m funding announced July 2018, opens 2021, 370 students plus 330 more in mid-2020s.
Belmont primary, Pukekohe: $22m funding announced June 2017, opens 2021, 350 students plus 200 more in mid-2020s.
Pokeno new primary: potential land purchase 2022, opens late 2020s, 30 students.
At its peak, 20 fire engines were on-site battling the blaze.