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As schools begin to return next week, provisional roll estimates show most of those in Rotorua are expected to grow this year.
Principals say they are prepared, but staffing continues to be a struggle.
A review of provisional data from the Ministry of Education released to the Rotorua Daily Post at the end of last year showed only a handful of schools were projected to have fewer students in 2023 — though some principals believe the estimates are not accurate.
The data was calculated from historic roll trends and specific circumstances such as a new school opening nearby. Network activity, roll forecasts and teacher supply are also considered, the ministry says.
“Schools need to be supporting the initial teacher education programmes so teachers are developed locally.
“This means it is more sustainable for us in the long run and we have a greater chance of keeping them on.”
Rotorua Lakes High School principal Jon Ward said that while the data predicted 11 more students in 2024, he was expecting “a few more”.
“I’ve got two gaps in my staffing levels which I’m recruiting for at the moment,” Ward said.
Rotorua Lakes High School principal Jon Ward. Photo / Andrew Warner
The scarcity of staff meant a homeroom class the school had introduced would not be able to continue for Year 9 students and they would be put in mainstream classes.
The Year 9 Harekeke class had been designed for students who “might not cope well with the lesson transitions from class to class” after having attended a small primary school with only one teacher.
“We’ve developed an environment where students can stay, for the most part, in one location and be taught by a singular, specialised teacher.
“We’re trying to plug the gaps as best we can, but they won’t be with the specialist teachers that we necessarily want in those positions.”
Western Heights High School principal James Bracefield said the school was “well equipped for our roll”, which was estimated to increase by 13 students.
James Bracefield from Western Heights High School. Photo / Andrew Warner
Provisional data indicated John Paul College was expected to decrease by nearly a classroom’s worth of students this year but principal Justin Harper said that was not likely.
Craig McFadyen of Ngongotahā School was reluctant to sacrifice children’s play spaces to add more classrooms.
Both principals agreed Rotorua needed more housing and that the new homes would also have many positive impacts.
Ministry central deputy secretary Jocelyn Mikaere said at the time there were no planned new schools but the ministry had regional teams that kept track of future growth and this could be considered in the future if necessary.
In Tauranga, the principal of a school in an area filled with new subdivision developments said for the past three years “it’s been a fight” for the school to have enough teachers to match the school’s sharp roll incline.
Te Manawa ō Pāpāmoa School principal Shane Cunliffe. Photo / Alex Cairns
This year, Te Manawa ō Pāpāmoa School in Pāpāmoa was set to grow by 157 primary-aged students, according to the provisional data.
Principal Shane Cunliffe said since opening at the beginning of 2022, the school’s rapid growth meant the banking staffing allocation, a tool the ministry used to manage an annual staffing entitlement, was not enough.
“We’ve overspent that amount and are now in deficit, which meant the amount is now taken out of our operational funding for the school,” Cunliffe said.
“Last year we overspent $10,000 to $12,000 every two weeks,” the principal said.
The new entrance classes, which should have an allocated ratio of one to 15, were instead one to 30 and Cunliffe said this was where a lot of the growth was happening.
Teachers burning out was his biggest concern.
Mikaere said provisional rolls provide schools and kura with a guaranteed minimum staffing entitlement.
“The ministry provides extra funding or staffing as new students are enrolled above the provisional roll figures and we will work with the school throughout 2024 to ensure that it has sufficient resourcing to manage expected growth.
“Newly established schools often have large roll increases for the first three years and this has been the case for Te Manawa o Pāpāmoa,” Mikaere said.
