Racing: Maya could break long drought

Headsup (yellow and blue) looks one of the better bets on the programme. Photo / Supplied

PUNTING: Midiamond Bracelet might sparkle in the opener at Tauranga

A seventeen-start maiden that has been beaten into second four times in her last six starts is not a good look.

But Maya in Race 6 might be a pretty useful bet at Tauranga today.

For starters she has had three races on the slow conditions she'll strike today and has been placed in two of them. If there is an issue it could be the No 1 barrier draw. If the forecast rain for today arrives the racing pattern by the middle of the programme will probably be suiting horses swooping wide from the back and Maya is not that type of horse. Watch the weather and the racing pattern of earlier races. If the swoopers are being favoured, Ilka might get into it. She drew No 1 and ended up in the wrong part of the track at Pukekohe last start. Earlier she'd been finishing on very strongly.

Midiamond Bracelet (No9, R1) has the credentials to be difficult to hold out in the opener. She had a fair bit go wrong on debut at Pukekohe and still managed to finish second. Being by Al Akbar from Plain Jill she has the breeding to handle the wet conditions. Hula Belle (No8) is not far from a win.

It would be a shame if the weather depleted the 2-year-old, Race 3 because the line-up has enormous depth. The finish Smoulder (No2) produced to score here last month was devastating and Gamble looked very smart in a winning debut at Te Rapa. Stardom (No9) looked very good in being stakes placed at her only start in the spring and Castel Benito (No6) impressed at the Cambridge barrier trials. There are a handful of other chances and you have to weigh up the unknown factor of the "off" track. Very difficult but Smoulder impressed enough on this track last start to go with again.

Benedict (No3, R3) ran a slick time when he won first up on a good surface at Ellerslie early last month, but interestingly he has been placed at both his starts on slow tracks, so he might not be inconvenienced today. If he's not he has what it takes to be very difficult to beat again. Taking The Mickey (No1) doesn't win out of turn these days, but if he can produce the effort that stretched Dancing Jess' neck at Te Rapa last time he'll go close to winning.

Difficult to know if the one-from-one record on slow tracks of Loviste (No4, R4) is going to be misleading. That was on her home track at Matamata and she ran the 1200m in 1.11.6 so it wasn't exactly knee-deep. If she manages the conditions today she will be right in this. Prairie Star (No6) is smart, smart enough to finish fifth to Katy Lee in the Eight Carat Classic at Ellerslie on Boxing Day. She looks headed for good things and could surprise today.

Race 5 is probably close to a no-bet race, but for the committed Propagate (No3) is probably going to be as good as any given the conditions. He might be a veteran, but he has a great record on rain-affected tracks and you can make more of a case for him here than you can for a few of them. He's no champ, but in these conditions he's a real hope. I'm Isaac (No2) is about ready to show improvement.

With Pinsoir (No3, R7) yesterday doubtful because of the conditions, topweight Elblitzem (No1) makes appeal as at least an each-way prospect. He goes well when fresh and likes the Tauranga track. Dasoudi (No7) is the interesting runner. She has yet to try wet conditions, but if she managed to handle them they might not be able to beat her.

Sleeping Murder (No8, R8) tailed the field last start, but look for something better with rain around. He has had a barrier trial since that last race back in December and should be ready for this.

Itsadream (No4), Dahoud (No3) and Sirilak (No12) are value chances in a tough field.

Race 9 is probably the best betting event on the card - chances everywhere. Nicole Amy (No11) is on the verge of a win. She didn't get much luck in the home straight at Te Rapa last start and comes into this race nicely. Salvatore (No1) has the 58kg topweight which won't make it easy, but he has a bit of class when there is wet weather around. He was beaten the width of your hand in a strong fielde at Te Rapa last start. Wida's Dream (No8) and John Gray (No5) also make appeal in a hugely competitive race.

Headsup (No1, R10) looks one of the better bets on the programme. She won on this track three starts back when fresh from a spell and has subsequently gone two good races in strong fields for a fifth and a third. The key here is that she gets a favourable rain-affected track for the first time this preparation and on her form on firmer footing, she'll make the most of it. Alvin Ng takes another 3kg off her back.

The last is tough, but Khamosabi (No8, R11) deserves it. He probably only has to handle the conditions well to take the race. He's unknown in these conditions on raceday, but won a barrier trial at Waipa in similar conditions before he raced.

* Aussie punters have climbed into two New Zealanders at Doomben today, The Hombre and She Kin Fly. By coincidence the pair worked together in training on Tuesday morning, from all accounts very well. The Hombre was opened up yesterday morning at $12 for today's A$125,000 Rough Habit Plate, but was quickly trimmed into $8. He's a horse on the up and will give the Australians plenty to beat this afternoon with Jonathan Riddell in the saddle.