NZ Herald
  • Home
  • Latest news
  • Video
  • New Zealand
  • Sport
  • World
  • Business
  • Entertainment
  • Podcasts
  • Quizzes
  • Opinion
  • Lifestyle
  • Travel
  • Viva
  • Weather forecasts

Subscriptions

  • Herald Premium
  • Viva Premium
  • The Listener
  • BusinessDesk

Sections

  • Latest news
  • New Zealand
    • All New Zealand
    • Crime
    • Politics
    • Education
    • Open Justice
    • Scam Update
    • The Great NZ Road Trip
  • On The Up
  • World
    • All World
    • Australia
    • Asia
    • UK
    • United States
    • Middle East
    • Europe
    • Pacific
  • Business
    • All Business
    • MarketsSharesCurrencyCommoditiesStock TakesCrypto
    • Markets with Madison
    • Media Insider
    • Business analysis
    • Personal financeKiwiSaverInterest ratesTaxInvestment
    • EconomyInflationGDPOfficial cash rateEmployment
    • Small business
    • Business reportsMood of the BoardroomProject AucklandSustainable business and financeCapital markets reportAgribusiness reportInfrastructure reportDynamic business
    • Deloitte Top 200 Awards
    • CompaniesAged CareAgribusinessAirlinesBanking and financeConstructionEnergyFreight and logisticsHealthcareManufacturingMedia and MarketingRetailTelecommunicationsTourism
  • Opinion
    • All Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Editorials
    • Business analysis
    • Premium opinion
    • Letters to the editor
  • Sport
    • All Sport
    • OlympicsParalympics
    • RugbySuper RugbyNPCAll BlacksBlack FernsRugby sevensSchool rugby
    • CricketBlack CapsWhite Ferns
    • Racing
    • NetballSilver Ferns
    • LeagueWarriorsNRL
    • FootballWellington PhoenixAuckland FCAll WhitesFootball FernsEnglish Premier League
    • GolfNZ Open
    • MotorsportFormula 1
    • Boxing
    • UFC
    • BasketballNBABreakersTall BlacksTall Ferns
    • Tennis
    • Cycling
    • Athletics
    • SailingAmerica's CupSailGP
    • Rowing
  • Lifestyle
    • All Lifestyle
    • Viva - Food, fashion & beauty
    • Society Insider
    • Royals
    • Sex & relationships
    • Food & drinkRecipesRecipe collectionsRestaurant reviewsRestaurant bookings
    • Health & wellbeing
    • Fashion & beauty
    • Pets & animals
    • The Selection - Shop the trendsShop fashionShop beautyShop entertainmentShop giftsShop home & living
    • Milford's Investing Place
  • Entertainment
    • All Entertainment
    • TV
    • MoviesMovie reviews
    • MusicMusic reviews
    • BooksBook reviews
    • Culture
    • ReviewsBook reviewsMovie reviewsMusic reviewsRestaurant reviews
  • Travel
    • All Travel
    • News
    • New ZealandNorthlandAucklandWellingtonCanterburyOtago / QueenstownNelson-TasmanBest NZ beaches
    • International travelAustraliaPacific IslandsEuropeUKUSAAfricaAsia
    • Rail holidays
    • Cruise holidays
    • Ski holidays
    • Luxury travel
    • Adventure travel
  • Kāhu Māori news
  • Environment
    • All Environment
    • Our Green Future
  • Talanoa Pacific news
  • Property
    • All Property
    • Property Insider
    • Interest rates tracker
    • Residential property listings
    • Commercial property listings
  • Health
  • Technology
    • All Technology
    • AI
    • Social media
  • Rural
    • All Rural
    • Dairy farming
    • Sheep & beef farming
    • Horticulture
    • Animal health
    • Rural business
    • Rural life
    • Rural technology
    • Opinion
    • Audio & podcasts
  • Weather forecasts
    • All Weather forecasts
    • Kaitaia
    • Whangārei
    • Dargaville
    • Auckland
    • Thames
    • Tauranga
    • Hamilton
    • Whakatāne
    • Rotorua
    • Tokoroa
    • Te Kuiti
    • Taumaranui
    • Taupō
    • Gisborne
    • New Plymouth
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Dannevirke
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Levin
    • Paraparaumu
    • Masterton
    • Wellington
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Blenheim
    • Westport
    • Reefton
    • Kaikōura
    • Greymouth
    • Hokitika
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
    • Wānaka
    • Oamaru
    • Queenstown
    • Dunedin
    • Gore
    • Invercargill
  • Meet the journalists
  • Promotions & competitions
  • OneRoof property listings
  • Driven car news

Puzzles & Quizzes

  • Puzzles
    • All Puzzles
    • Sudoku
    • Code Cracker
    • Crosswords
    • Cryptic crossword
    • Wordsearch
  • Quizzes
    • All Quizzes
    • Morning quiz
    • Afternoon quiz
    • Sports quiz

Regions

  • Northland
    • All Northland
    • Far North
    • Kaitaia
    • Kerikeri
    • Kaikohe
    • Bay of Islands
    • Whangarei
    • Dargaville
    • Kaipara
    • Mangawhai
  • Auckland
  • Waikato
    • All Waikato
    • Hamilton
    • Coromandel & Hauraki
    • Matamata & Piako
    • Cambridge
    • Te Awamutu
    • Tokoroa & South Waikato
    • Taupō & Tūrangi
  • Bay of Plenty
    • All Bay of Plenty
    • Katikati
    • Tauranga
    • Mount Maunganui
    • Pāpāmoa
    • Te Puke
    • Whakatāne
  • Rotorua
  • Hawke's Bay
    • All Hawke's Bay
    • Napier
    • Hastings
    • Havelock North
    • Central Hawke's Bay
    • Wairoa
  • Taranaki
    • All Taranaki
    • Stratford
    • New Plymouth
    • Hāwera
  • Manawatū - Whanganui
    • All Manawatū - Whanganui
    • Whanganui
    • Palmerston North
    • Manawatū
    • Tararua
    • Horowhenua
  • Wellington
    • All Wellington
    • Kapiti
    • Wairarapa
    • Upper Hutt
    • Lower Hutt
  • Nelson & Tasman
    • All Nelson & Tasman
    • Motueka
    • Nelson
    • Tasman
  • Marlborough
  • West Coast
  • Canterbury
    • All Canterbury
    • Kaikōura
    • Christchurch
    • Ashburton
    • Timaru
  • Otago
    • All Otago
    • Oamaru
    • Dunedin
    • Balclutha
    • Alexandra
    • Queenstown
    • Wanaka
  • Southland
    • All Southland
    • Invercargill
    • Gore
    • Stewart Island
  • Gisborne

Media

  • Video
    • All Video
    • NZ news video
    • Business news video
    • Politics news video
    • Sport video
    • World news video
    • Lifestyle video
    • Entertainment video
    • Travel video
    • Markets with Madison
    • Kea Kids news
  • Podcasts
    • All Podcasts
    • The Front Page
    • On the Tiles
    • Ask me Anything
    • The Little Things
    • Cooking the Books
  • Cartoons
  • Photo galleries
  • Today's Paper - E-editions
  • Photo sales
  • Classifieds

NZME Network

  • Advertise with NZME
  • OneRoof
  • Driven Car Guide
  • BusinessDesk
  • Newstalk ZB
  • What the Actual
  • Sunlive
  • ZM
  • The Hits
  • Coast
  • Radio Hauraki
  • The Alternative Commentary Collective
  • Gold
  • Flava
  • iHeart Radio
  • Hokonui
  • Radio Wanaka
  • iHeartCountry New Zealand
  • Restaurant Hub
  • NZME Events

SubscribeSign In
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Home / New Zealand

Q&A: Hikurangi Subduction Zone's big quake threat

NZ Herald
28 Nov, 2017 12:56 AM4 mins to read

Subscribe to listen

Access to Herald Premium articles require a Premium subscription. Subscribe now to listen.
Already a subscriber?  Sign in here

Listening to articles is free for open-access content—explore other articles or learn more about text-to-speech.
‌
Save

    Share this article

A leading earthquake geologist says a devastating ‘megathrust’ earthquake linked to the Kaikoura quake is still a possibility.

The natural threat posed by New Zealand's largest fault, the Hikurangi Subduction Zone, has again been in the headlines. Although the system is capable of generating earthquakes larger than 8.0 - and perhaps 9.0 - GNS Science earthquake geologist Dr Ursula Cochran says we shouldn't feel frightened. Instead, we should be prepared. She discusses the threat with the Herald.

What do we know about the Hikurangi Subduction Zone, and what it has done in the past?

The Hikurangi Subduction Zone is New Zealand's largest fault because of the area that could move in a large earthquake.

Geological and geophysical evidence shows that the zone can produce magnitude 8.0 and larger earthquakes.

It is possible it could produce magnitude 9 earthquakes but we don't yet have strong evidence for this.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Geological evidence suggests the last magnitude 8 earthquake happened about 500 years ago and there were two magnitude 7+ earthquakes offshore of Gisborne in 1947.

We are doing a number of studies to better understand the past behaviour of the subduction zone — ultimately, we hope to develop earthquake records similar to what is known for the Alpine Fault.

What threat could it pose to coastal communities today — and how quickly?

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

One of main hazards of a large Hikurangi subduction zone earthquake is the tsunami it would trigger.

Scientists aboard the Joides Resolution want to learn more about the risks the Hikurangi Subduction Zone poses. Photo / File
Scientists aboard the Joides Resolution want to learn more about the risks the Hikurangi Subduction Zone poses. Photo / File

The size and extent of the tsunami would depend on how big the earthquake is and how the fault moves.

Modelling shows that parts of the East Coast close to the subduction zone - like eastern Wairarapa - could receive the tsunami about seven minutes after the earthquake.

Most locations will have longer gaps between the earthquake and the tsunami.

Discover more

New Zealand

Centre of country rocked by 2.30am quake

26 Nov 04:20 PM
New Zealand

Kaikoura quake 'not the big one'

26 Nov 09:50 PM

However, these short arrival times illustrate why it is so important to evacuate without waiting for an official warning — there will be no time to give one.

If you feel shaking that is long or strong, move away from the coast.

Know your evacuation zones so you know where to get to safety — your council website is the best place to find these maps.

Why has it been a challenge to understand how the zone behaves and how are scientists now attempting to gain deeper insights?

The Hikurangi subduction zone lies underneath the North Island and only comes to the surface offshore of the East Coast so we can't easily see it or study it.

There are now several new research programmes, including an MBie Endeavour project, aimed at understanding the Hikurangi subduction zone from different angles.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Overseas interest in the characteristics of our subduction zone means we have big research vessels such as the scientific drilling vessel Joides Resolution visiting our shores to help gather data.

We are deploying instruments onto the seafloor to measure plate movement, drilling into the fault to look at its properties, seismic surveying to get an image of the physical conditions on the plate boundary, investigating more of the onshore and offshore geology to find evidence of past earthquakes.

Many communities and research institutions are involved in the effort to better understand likely impacts on people if this fault moves in a big earthquake.

How does the threat it poses differ from the South Island's Alpine Fault?

Both faults are capable of big earthquakes but because of their locations and geometry, they will have quite different impacts for people.

The most obvious difference is that the Alpine Fault is onshore so one of the hazards will be the surface rupture itself where the ground will break and shift the land by metres.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

There will also be extensive landsliding because of the mountainous country the fault crosses.

The Alpine Fault may cause a tsunami if it ruptures offshore or triggers undersea landslides.

However, the tsunami from a Hikurangi Subduction Zone earthquake is likely to be a much greater hazard because much of the fault is underwater.

It is great news as of yesterday that there is continued and new funding for efforts by the East Coast Lab and AF8 to be better prepared for earthquakes from these faults.

What, ultimately, do you feel is the take-away for people around this natural hazard?

Don't be scared, be prepared.

Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

We have an amazing country to live in, we just need to be aware of the hazards of living in New Zealand and keep working to improve our ability to live safely in this active landscape.

Save

    Share this article

Latest from New Zealand

New Zealand

Watch: Black Power gang members farewell Selwyn Robson with stirring haka

12 May 08:38 AM
New Zealand

Black Power members perform a farewell haka for Manurewa homicide victim Selwyn Robson.

Politics

Govt earmarks $100m for students underachieving in maths, new ‘maths intervention’ teachers

12 May 07:30 AM

One tiny baby’s fight to survive

sponsored
Advertisement
Advertise with NZME.

Latest from New Zealand

Watch: Black Power gang members farewell Selwyn Robson with stirring haka

Watch: Black Power gang members farewell Selwyn Robson with stirring haka

12 May 08:38 AM

Members were seen performing a haka as pallbearers carried his coffin into the clubhouse.

Black Power members perform a farewell haka for Manurewa homicide victim Selwyn Robson.

Black Power members perform a farewell haka for Manurewa homicide victim Selwyn Robson.

Govt earmarks $100m for students underachieving in maths, new ‘maths intervention’ teachers

Govt earmarks $100m for students underachieving in maths, new ‘maths intervention’ teachers

12 May 07:30 AM
Abuse in state care: PM defends broken promise, emotional Hipkins slams Govt ‘injustice’

Abuse in state care: PM defends broken promise, emotional Hipkins slams Govt ‘injustice’

12 May 07:26 AM
Connected workers are safer workers 
sponsored

Connected workers are safer workers 

NZ Herald
  • About NZ Herald
  • Meet the journalists
  • Newsletters
  • Classifieds
  • Help & support
  • Contact us
  • House rules
  • Privacy Policy
  • Terms of use
  • Competition terms & conditions
  • Our use of AI
Subscriber Services
  • NZ Herald e-editions
  • Daily puzzles & quizzes
  • Manage your digital subscription
  • Manage your print subscription
  • Subscribe to the NZ Herald newspaper
  • Subscribe to Herald Premium
  • Gift a subscription
  • Subscriber FAQs
  • Subscription terms & conditions
  • Promotions and subscriber benefits
NZME Network
  • The New Zealand Herald
  • The Northland Age
  • The Northern Advocate
  • Waikato Herald
  • Bay of Plenty Times
  • Rotorua Daily Post
  • Hawke's Bay Today
  • Whanganui Chronicle
  • Viva
  • NZ Listener
  • What the Actual
  • Newstalk ZB
  • BusinessDesk
  • OneRoof
  • Driven CarGuide
  • iHeart Radio
  • Restaurant Hub
NZME
  • About NZME
  • NZME careers
  • Advertise with NZME
  • Digital self-service advertising
  • Book your classified ad
  • Photo sales
  • NZME Events
  • © Copyright 2025 NZME Publishing Limited
TOP