The poll was released before a Taxpayers’ Union-hosted Hastings mayoral debate in Havelock North, on Monday evening, moderated by its executive director Jordan Williams, which saw about 300 people pack out the hall.
It also found 70% of poll respondents supported a cap on rate increases, while just 21% opposed it and 9% are unsure.
The poll showed Harvey had the highest name recognition of Hastings voters at 65%, followed by Schollum on 59%, Gibson on 51%, Buddo on 45% and Wilson on 33%.
Buddo said he was encouraged by the result.
“Although the only poll that matters is the election, when I’m out door-knocking, people are concerned about rate rises and affordability, and they are responding positively to a candidate who can credibly explain how to cut them, with a voting record to back it up.”
Harvey, one of three candidates to attend the debate with Gibson and Buddo, said he was pleased he had the highest name favourability and name recognition score of all candidates.
“It proves that people recognise that I’ve worked hard for many years in the community and that experience counts,” Harvey said.
“I’m getting strong support when I’m out and about and that’s my focus up until October 11.”
Schollum said voters knew “which outfits were linked to which campaigns”, and they could judge for themselves how realistic the snapshot numbers were.
“What matters to me is what I’m hearing on the ground, and it’s very different.
“Hastings people are focused on rates, housing, accountability, and recovery, and the poll that really counts is the voting period that opens today and closes on 11 October,” she said.
Gibson said he was taking the poll with caution and suggested it was flawed.
“Over the weekend, two residents told me Curia rang them, both said they’d vote for me – yet one call was cut off halfway through and never resumed.
“That’s suspicious and raises questions about how reliable the numbers really are.
“I also wonder which candidate financed this poll.”
The Taxpayers’ Union said it had financed the poll. Curia director David Farrar said sometimes calls do get disconnected during polling.
“Our protocol is to ring straight back,” Farrar said.
“Even if one of those people was cut off, it would have only made a 0.2% difference. Not huge at all.”
Taxpayers’ Union spokesperson Tory Relf said the three mayoral candidates had engaged well with the audience on Monday night.
Relf claimed that despite “picking a date that suited Wendy”, Schollum had sent her apologies because she had “double booked herself”.
“Darren let us know well in advance that he couldn’t make it.” Relf said of Wilson’s communications.
In response, Schollum sent through emails between her and the Taxpayers’ Union ahead of the debate where she noted that their communications to her had gone into her junk mail.
She had told them on August 20 that she was already committed to another event on that night, she said.
Relf said the hot topic of the forum was rates.
“The audience asked lots of questions about rates. It was great to see so many people engaged in local democracy. It’s a good sign.”
The poll results also revealed 50% of residents thought Hawke’s Bay was heading in the right direction, while 29% said it was heading in the wrong direction.
Darrin Wilson did not respond.
POLL DETAILS
The target population of the Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll was Hastings District residents aged 18 years plus, contactable on a landline or mobile phone or online panel.
Of the 500 respondents who agreed to take part, 425 were interviewed by phone and 75 by an online panel.
The respondents came from a random selection of 5000 Hastings phone numbers (landlines and mobiles) and a random selection from the target population from a global online panel (that complies with ESOMAR guidelines for online research).
Multiple callbacks were made to maximise the response rate.
The results are weighted to reflect the overall Hastings population in terms of gender, age and ward.
Based on a sample of 500 respondents, the maximum sampling error (for a result of 50%) is +/- 4.4%, at a confidence level of 95%.
LDR is local body journalism co-funded by RNZ and NZ On Air.
