Concerns over gangs, extremist views by prisoners, migration numbers and disassociation from school following Covid-19 have been raised by government department officials in briefings to new ministers.
The Bims are produced by public servants after each change of government or change of minister and usually set out trouble spots and challenges looming in each portfolio area, some preliminary advice on government policy as well as a basic introduction to how the government department operates and the ministers’ responsibilities.
NZ Herald journalists have compiled the highlights of the briefings which were given to members of the National-Act-NZ First coalition and released on government department websites.
Story continues after live blog.
The new Government has been warned that funding will need to be found for the following programmes, or they will stop:
Luxon confirmed to media during a visit to Browns Bay School today that the Government would continue to fund school lunches beyond the end of the year.
The Ministry of Education’s Bims cover early childhood education, primary and secondary, and tertiary.
”There are some significant pressures in the education fiscal environment that the Government will need to act quickly to manage,” the briefing warned.
The ministry wants to work with ministers on areas it believes need attention, including:
Critical priorities listed by the ministry included the fact that “the education system does not deliver excellent and equitable outcomes for all”.
Meanwhile the briefing noted that “a feature of the post-Covid environment, here and overseas, is high levels of disassociation from school and early learning, challenging behaviour and a marked increase in anxiety as well as more severe mental health trauma for young people.”
”Covid also led to a step-change in the use of distance learning technology, which can provide a basis for innovation in the future, but teachers have to adjust their pedagogies to teach in those media, compounding capacity issues.
”There are some big system shifts required, within schools and beyond, if the schooling system is able to respond to the significant social and economic shifts in a post-pandemic world.”
Other cost pressures include the need to keep pace with cost inflation, and changes in tertiary and early childhood student numbers.
The previous Labour Government in August 2023 asked the Ministry of Education to find almost $70m in permanent baseline savings each year, from 2024/25. However, the briefing states that an inability to make savings in areas like school property and capital and frontline education workers means the real saving requirement is not 2 per cent of departmental funding, “but closer to 15-17.5 per cent of the Ministry’s core expenditure, which is not likely to be possible without significant impact on our ability to deliver to our core role.”
”We will brief you further on options for meeting savings requirements, noting that, as the incoming Government, you also have policy priorities in relation to public service expenditure.”
The briefing notes that financial pressure on tertiary providers will continue this year, “which will likely increase risks to the breadth of study options available to learners.”
- Nicholas Jones
Police Commissioner Andrew Coster has told Police Minister Mark Mitchell in his briefing that “more needs to be done” to curb blatant offending and the concerning rise in the visibility of gangs, ram raids, aggravated robberies and the “cohort of persistent young offenders”.
Coster stated the well-known fact police were attending more family harm and mental health-related callouts than ever before, which was straining a workforce facing recruitment pressures - something that was also making it difficult to staff areas including the East Coast and in the Far North.
Mitchell’s briefing outlined how global factors - technological advancement, transnational crime, geopolitical influence - combined with local factors - cost of living pressures, declined mental wellbeing, depravation, increased willingness to use firearms - to shape the policing environment.
While the briefing advised New Zealand society was still safe to live in, officials noted how feelings of safety “are often incongruent” with the reality of crime statistics.
”Like other public institutions, establishing and maintaining public trust and confidence in Police is getting harder.
”National’s law and order election campaign strategy centred around the claim New Zealanders no longer felt safe under the Labour Government. Mitchell has also staked his job on making Kiwis feel safer.
Mitchell was informed reporting of retail crime continues to grow alongside concerns of “increasing threats and violence”. This was due to improvements in reporting tools, such as Auror which about 15,000 retailers were linked to and could report crime through.
The level of ram raids was at the lowest it had been since October, 2021. Of the 1385 ram raids between January, 2022 and July 2023, enforcement action had been taken against 864 offenders and referred 368 offenders to Youth Aid.
Officials also said there was no evidence more recent ram raid offending was being driven by youth gang affiliation or membership, despite some offenders having gang associations.
Meanwhile an overall increase in attrition in the police workforce during the next decade is expected as a “large number” of constabulary employees are older than 55 years old, Mitchell’s briefing says. It follows Mitchell’s comments about the serious issues with recruitment police were experiencing and how it could threaten the Government’s aim to train 500 new officers within two years.
The plan to address the overwhelming burden of mental health callouts on the police will be considered by Cabinet next month, Mitchell’s briefing says. The plan, developed by police and health agencies, charted a five-year transition to a multi-agency response for people in mental distress who call 111.
Mitchell was also warned future events akin to Cyclone Gabrielle or the Auckland floods would put “significant pressure” on police funds, given police received no funding from Budget 2023 for cost pressures.
- Adam Pearse
A National Emergency Managment Agency briefing warned recent research found a 25 per cent “probability of a major Hikurangi Subduction Zone... earthquake event occurring in the next 50 years.”
They warned that “indicative national impacts of a major Hikurangi earthquake and tsunami include tens of thousands of people dead, injured or displaced from their homes, and significant damage to the built environment (in excess of $144 billion)”.
The paper warned a quake and tsunami caused by the Hikurangi subduction zone could happen “tomorrow”.
”If not in our lifetime, then in that of the next generation. Crucially, it could happen tomorrow”.
- Thomas Coughlan
The briefing to new Corrections Minister Mark Mitchell from the Department of Corrections says the prison service has identified an increase in the number of inmates with extremist views.
”In recent years, there has been an increase in the number of people we manage who are identified as potentially holding extremist views or displaying risk factors and indicators specific to radicalisation or violent extremism,” the briefing says.
”We are also one of the government agencies dealing with the emergence of new, more sophisticated gangs and domestic and transnational organised crime groups.”
The briefing discusses the Prisoners of Extreme Risk Unit (PERU) in Auckland Prison at Paremoremo, a special prison within a prison set up following the Christchurch terror attacks. Alongside Brenton Tarrant, the unit has housed other inmates deemed capable of influencing other prisoners, such as high-ranking gang members and an international drug trafficker. One page of the briefing is titled “key upcoming decisions” and is redacted in its entirety.
Figures provided showed the prison population is steadily on the rise after reaching a record low under the last Labour Government It now sits at about 9000, of whom 57 percent are sentenced prisoners and 43 percent are on remand.
The briefing also said the increase in the number of people on remand, i.e. those in prison awaiting trial or sentence, is creating challenges for the departeducation department.
”After a period of relative stability from July 2020 to July 2022 there has been a steady increase in the remand population,” the briefing said.
”Based on projections, and without interventions, it is likely that the remand population will continue to grow faster than the sentenced population. The high number and proportion of people on remand is significant and has created challenges for Corrections across multiple areas.
”Of the approximately 9000 people in prison, 43 percent are on remand, the briefing said. It said the length of time people spend on remand has also increased significantly.
”This follows an increase in the time it takes to resolve serious charges in the courts. As most people on remand are managed as high security, these changes are creating challenges for Corrections, such as additional staffing and infrastructure requirements.”
Since 2017, the number of people in the community on electronically monitored (EM) bail - an alternative to imprisonment while on remand awaiting sentence or trial - has increased from 495 in 2017 to 1743 in November last year, the briefing said.
”The particularly rapid growth of EM bail is creating resourcing pressures, complexities in assessing and managing risk, and making it more difficult to retain staff.”
The new 600-bed facility at Waikeria Prison near Te Awamutu is expected to be finished in November 2024, the briefing said. The facility includes a dedicated 96-bed mental health unit.
- George Block
The MBIE briefing notes to the Immigration Minister express concerns about the high net migration numbers New Zealand is experiencing post-Covid.
The provisional net migration gain of 118,800 for the year to September 2023 is the highest on record for an annual period.
“It is still unclear how much of this is catch-up, and what direction it may go in. Unless absorptive capacity keeps pace with population growth, then we will have increasing difficulty to take in more migrants and provide high-quality services to the locals. There can be tension where increased migration puts pressure on the absorptive capacity, but can provide the workforce needed to alleviate the pressure on absorptive capacity.”
The Immigration Minister was told that if migration were to stay at the levels seen in 2023, then there could be impacts on our absorptive capacity.
- Lincoln Tan
The Ministry of Social Development has warned the incoming Minister Louise Upston that unemployment figures and demand for housing assistance will likely grow as the rising cost of living hits Kiwi households.
Its briefing said the working-age benefit numbers were forecast to rise from 351,700 in June last year to around 382,900 in January 2025.
”Demand for support from the Ministry is increasing, in part because of shortage of affordable housing and rising living costs, which affect other aspects of clients’ lives. We are seeing increasing complexity in clients’ needs, including mental health distress.”
At the end of September 2023, 362,094 people were receiving a main benefit. This was up 16,332 or 4.7 per cent when compared to September 2022.
Those receiving job seeker support had also risen - in September last year 181,509 people were receiving Jobseeker Support, 11,472 more than the year prior.
The sole parent support benefit rose by 2.9 per cent, with 2103 more people receiving the support since September 2022. Similarly, the supported living payment was up around the same per cent.
The agency’s staff turnover rate has dropped from a high of 18 per cent in late 2022 to 13.5 per cent in September 2023. It’s gender pay gap has also reduced, from 15.1 per cent in June 2018 to 10 per cent in June last year.Ethnic pay gaps remain in the agency, including a 4.5 per cent gap for Māori and 9.9 for Pacific people, the document said.
- Katie Harris
Housing Minister Chris Bishop’s briefing from Kāinga Ora included a description of the benefits being derived from the new housing delivery system which allowed faster and more reliable planning and build times, reduced construction costs and improved performance through the build process.
Officials estimated the system would save about $820 million over four years. However, it did acknowledge the aim of providing stable homes - and therefore reducing cost to Government - was challenged by a “small proportion” of people who struggled to live well or behaved in a disruptive manner.
The briefing said Kāinga Ora had developed a new customer operating model to better support people’s needs and had used relocations and evictions through changes to the Residential Tenancy Act to mitigate the impact of the few on whole communities.
- Adam Pearse
In a briefing to Health Minister Shane Reti, was told there was much more work to do, including responding to workforce shortages, the ongoing impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and ageing populations - while also implementing major reforms.
Director-general of health Dr Diana Sarfati said the ministry’s priority was supporting the Government’s 100-day plan initiatives, including:
The ministry said it was also eager to explore some of the sector’s medium-term challenges. It identified several key challenges:
Officials also warned that this would be “a challenging period for the health system”, saying that wider economic uncertainty meant Government would need to carefully prioritise investment to ensure it targeted interventions to achieve the best outcomes.
Reti was warned about “change fatigue” within the health system as the Government prepares to scrap the Māori Health Authority (MHA). The disestablishment of the authority, also known as Te Aka Whai Ora, was promised by all three governing parties during the election campaign. It is among the Government’s 100-day priorities, though officials said the timing of any law change would depend on the scope of the changes planned by ministers.
National’s election promise to fund 10 new cancer drugs also faced some uncertainties, officials said.
”Funding additional cancer drugs within Budget 2024 will have some challenges given the existing legislative settings and decision-making framework for the public funding of medicines. There are additional considerations to enable access to the cancer drugs such as from workforce and system capacity limitations.”
- Isaac Davison
”As the sector transitions online, companies will be required to consider the viability of ongoing investment in analogue broadcasting infrastructure,” says the Ministry for Culture and Heritage briefing document.
”It is likely that the Freeview Chief Executives (from TVNZ, Warner Bros. Discovery, RNZ and Whakaata Māori) will raise the future of traditional TV broadcasting with you. TV broadcasters pay a fee to Kordia (a government-owned firm), and the costs are increasingly unsustainable as competition increases from global streaming companies.
“The ongoing transition away from legacy transmission infrastructure continues to require careful management. Analogue radio and TV broadcasting still contribute to New Zealand’s resilience during natural disasters and towards equity of access for geographically isolated New Zealanders.”
The document outlines the sector’s big shift to a digital-first focus, but also the impact that the likes of global tech giants such as Facebook, Google, and Netflix have on the industry.
”Digital products provide only a fraction of the revenue previously provided by traditional operating models. At the same time, the expense of maintaining those traditional models means broadcasters are now facing the prospect of switching off TV and radio AM services and moving exclusively to online streaming.
”There are opportunities to support both sector innovation and greater audience choice. The media and content production sectors are aware of the need to find funding from sources other than Government and are strong supporters of creating a more modern and streamlined system that encourages more effective investment.”
The briefing document paints a sobering picture of the New Zealand media industry’s financial challenges, citing TVNZ’s drop in profits from $59.2 million in 2020/21 to $1.7m in 2022/23 and a forecast loss of $15.6m this financial year.
It also outlines heavy losses for MediaWorks and Warner Bros. Discovery as well as NZME’s drop in profit in 2022. A line about another company has been redacted.
- Shayne Currie
It was well-forecast that agencies needed to make budget cuts but military leaders have told the new Minister of Defence Judith Collins it needs money.
Collins was told there was short-term and medium to long-term investment needed - first to stabilise NZDF and then to grow it. That means better pay and conditions for those who serve, and an upgrade of NZDF’s run #down real estate portfolio.
That’s against a back-drop - Collins was told - of increasing strategic competition in the region and an expectation of increasingly serious climate events. Despite those looming and serious issue, the briefing to Collins said “the most significant issue facing Defence right now is high levels of attrition and lower retention”.
High levels of attrition had slowed but were expected to continue for some time, she was told. The consequence, the briefing said, was the impact on NZDF’s ability to do the jobs government wanted it to do. Not only were experienced staff needed for those jobs, they were also required to introduce new equipment - such as the P8 Poseidon surveillance aircraft - and to train the next generation of service personnel.
In terms of scale, the Minister was told 30 per cent of uniformed personnel had left in 20 months to February 2023. In terms of numbers, the briefing said NZDF was 1300 uniformed personnel short. Its current numbers - based on an OIA release to the Herald - was around 8200 people in uniform.
There were a range of efforts to fix the problem, including increasing pay to bring 91 per cent of staff within 5 per cent of the market median and to review outdated benefits to compensate for military service, such as extended time at sea.
A snapshot of services showed attrition had impacted each: the Navy had three ships tied up; Army had “limited capacity” to respond to disaster or security events at scale and “very limited capacity” to deal with multiple events; Air force “has a number of capacity shortfalls”.
- David Fisher
The disestablishment of the Ministry of Transport’s work on the Auckland Light Rail project will likely cost millions of dollars spent over six months and will involve the disposal of property, land and settling obligations.
The Auckland Light Rail (ALR) project was officially scrapped by the new Transport Minister Simeon Brown on January 14. He said the project would have cost taxpayers $15 billion, with advice showing the cost could increase to $29.2b.
The commitment to scrap ALR was part of the National government’s 100-day Action Plan. The cabinet paper proactively released today by the Ministry of Transport (MOT) has revealed that “existing funding” to ALR Ltd will be “sufficient to fund” its disestablishment.
”The best way to stop work on the ALR project is to change the purpose of ALR Ltd from a focus on developing the project’s business case, to managing an orderly disestablishment,” the cabinet paper says.
”Officials expect that it could take up to six months to substantively complete the disestablishment process.”
The Minister of Transport is invited in the paper to report back to Cabinet on the progress of disestablishing ALR Ltd “including the future of its land holding and disposition of its other assets and the settlement of obligations and liabilities” by the end of March 2024.
- Tom Dillane
The Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) concedes “issues persist with the scope and workability” of the of the controversial law aimed at protecting vulnerable borrowers from predatory lending.
It suggests the Credit Contracts and Consumer Finance Act (CCCFA) could be applied more narrowly to “certain types of lenders, products and/or consumers”.
The law is currently applied to the likes of banks, which are risk averse with their lending, as well as pay day lenders, which service vulnerable borrowers, typically unable to get bank finance. The CCCFA has been tweaked a few times in recent years.
Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister Andrew Bayly has committed to reviewing it again. MBIE says a 2022 investigation it did found “the prescriptive one-size-fits-all approach to assessing affordability of loans and the associated liability regime unduly restricts access to credit and imposes unnecessary or disproportionate inquiries on borrowers and compliance costs on lenders”.
- Jenée Tibshraeny
New Zealand’s electricity supply is likely to fall short on an increasing number of occasions, according to MBIE.
”Our most immediate challenge is to ensure sufficient electricity generation to meet peak demand during cold winter mornings and evenings,” MBIE said.
”These tight periods can last minutes or hours and are a particular challenge at times when our thermal generators are not already running to provide baseload electricity supply, when the wind drops, or when the weather is colder than forecast.”
The ministry explained the challenges arose from the country’s move away from fossil fuels towards more sustainable energy sources. Electrifying the country means there’s more demand for electricity. However, we can’t control when the wind blows and sun shines, and quick-start thermal generation plants are coming to the end of their lives.
- Jenée Tibshraeny
The Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade (MFAT) has painted a depressing, if not scary, picture of the world, saying it has become “less prosperous, less secure and less free” since Covid-19 came along.
”New Zealand can no longer rely on the durability of continuing international cooperation and trade liberalisation, which have been the foundation of its foreign, trade and economic policies for decades,” MFAT said.
It believed New Zealand would be affected by three big global shifts: rules to power, economics to security and efficiency to resilience.
It said Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was “an assault” on the rules-based international system, which has “further exacerbated food and energy insecurity, and revived the threat of nuclear war”.
As for the Israel-Hamas conflict, MFAT expected it to spread further. In a section on China, MFAT said the wider Indo-Pacific region “is now a theatre for increasing strategic competition”.
”All these issues reduce the international system’s capacity to tackle more existential challenges - notably climate change.”
- Jenée Tibshraeny
The Public Service Commission has warned its minister Nicola Willis that steps such as a cap on public service numbers or a hiring freeze to try to cut spending are a blunt instrument, and warned careful management will be needed to cut public service spending without compromising services to the public.
In its briefing, it addresses the government’s push to trim spending in the public sector and cut back on contractor and consultant numbers.
”In general we do not recommend the use of input controls (i.e. ‘caps’ or ‘hiring freezes’) as an effective means of re-prioritising resources. These tend to be blunt instruments, which can lock in resource allocations not aligned to your priorities, set perverse incentives or create upward pressure on contractor and consultant spend, and give you less deliberate choice about which programmes you invest in.”
The PSC puts forward some ideas on how to achieve the cuts the government wants, suggesting the pool of existing public servants could be better organised instead.
”We can also provide advice on more specific options for improving workforce efficiency or reducing the pressures on consultant spend via more strategic workforce planning, deployable pools of mobile staff, or in-sourced consultancy models.”
It said New Zealand’s public service was very decentralised, and thought could be given to using public servants with specific skills – such as policy development - across more than one department. It also proposed reducing poaching and competition for staff between government departments – which put upward pressure on salaries - by aligning terms and conditions across the public service.
It has also presented advice on National’s promise to cut the use of contractors and consultants in the public sector by $400 million a year – the government’s 100-day plan includes instructing public sector chief executives to start reducing spending on consultants and contractors.
Figures in the BIM showed spending on contractors and consulants had increased from about $600 million a year from 2018 – 2021, to over $900 by June 2022, dropping slightly by mid 2023. Spending as a proportion of the total public sector workforce spend had gone from between 10-12 per cent, to 14 per cent and then back down to 13 per cent in 2023.
Some government departments – including MBIE – have defended the use of consultants and consultants in their BIMs, saying they were for roles which the department did not have the in-house expertise to do.
- Claire Trevett
The Department of Internal Affairs (DIA) has told Local Government Minister Simeon Brown it is a challenging time for local government.
”The current structure and system are ageing, not performing well, and no longer meet the needs of the sector.”
Challenges include historical underinvestment and a short-term reactionary focus driven by crises and compliance, the department said. Many councils are under financial stress and their upcoming 10-year budgets are expected to show deteriorating balance sheets, significant rates rises and constrained infrastructure investment.
The Government has not yet repealed Labour’s controversial Three Waters reform legislation but it has promised to do so within its first 100 days.
DIA said uncertainty around Three Waters is making it difficult for councils to put together their budgets and urgent changes to legislation are needed to support local government.
- Georgina Campbell
The Prime Minister is ahead of other big international names.