Labour leader Chris Hipkins on tax fairness, mining royalties, and the political fight shaping up for 2026.
Labour has jumped to 38% in a new poll after its announcement that it will campaign on a capital gains tax, the revenue of which will fund three free GP visits.
The Talbot Mills/Anacta poll was conducted between November 1 and 10, for corporate clients, so it began in thedays after Labour’s policy announcement. Talbot Mills/Anacta also does internal polling for Labour.
The results show Labour has risen from 35% in the previous poll in October to 38%, while National has lifted from 29% to 33%.
NZ First support has fallen from 12% to 8%, while Act has slipped from 8% to 7%.
The Greens have the support of 9% of people, a shift from 10% last month, while Te Pāti Māori is down from 3.6% to 2.4%.
Te Pāti Māori has experienced significant internal division in the past month, with it announcing the expulsion of two MPs on Monday. Mariameno Kapa-Kingi and Takuta Ferris became independent MPs.
While Te Pāti Māori is below the 5% threshold, it has representation in Parliament because its four MPs each won their electorate seats.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins announced the tax policy in late October. Photo / Mark Mitchell
In terms of seats in the House, assuming Te Pāti Māori wins an electorate seat, the centre-left would be in a position to govern. Labour would receive 47 seats, the Greens 11, and Te Pāti Māori would have three.
If Te Pāti Māori were to hold all its seats, there would be a single seat overhang. There would be an overhang of three seats if the independents also won their electorates.
On the right, National would get 40 seats, NZ First 10, and Act nine.
In a situation where Te Pāti Māori lost all of its seats, the centre-right parties would have enough to form a Government.
Labour’s Chris Hipkins is the preferred Prime Minister of 26% of participants, compared with National’s Christopher Luxon’s 22%.
In a Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll released yesterday, Labour rose 2.1 points to 33.3%. National was up 0.6 points to 30.2%, the Greens fell 2.8 points to 9.2%, NZ First was down 1.5 points to 9.1%, Act was up 2 points to 8.6% and Te Pāti Māori was down 1.1 points to 3.3%.
That gave National 39 seats, Act 11 seats and NZ First 12 seats – a total of 62 seats and enough to govern. Labour would get 42 seats and the Greens would get 12 seats.
The poll assumed Te Pāti Māori or ex-Te Pāti Māori MPs retained their seats, giving that group six seats.
