James Shaw signed up to two emissions reduction pledges. Photo / George Herd
New Zealand signed up to declarations to eventually end the sale of fossil fuel-powered cars, trucks and vans at COP 26 in Glasgow, despite current policies suggesting the country will fall well short of the targets we have pledged to meet.
The agreements give a strong indication that the Government is likely to adopt most, if not all, of the clean vehicle policies currently out for consultation, as part of the Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP), if it wants to live up to its international commitments.
Officials have warned that if those policies were not adopted, the Government would fail to fulfil these pledges.
New Zealand signed two agreements, one is to make all new car and van, sales to be zero-emissions by 2040 - this was backed up with a declaration by the UK Government that New Zealand also signed up to. It also called for all car and van sales to be zero emissions by 2035 in "leading" markets with an interim goal of making 30 per cent of sales zero emissions by 2030.
The other agreement - a memorandum of understanding - calls for all new truck and bus sales to be zero-emissions by 2040.
The agreements are non-binding and were made on the sidelines of COP 26, but their existance suggests the Government plans to implement most if not all of the zero emissions car policies in its draft ERP, including a maximum limit on the level of pollution allowed in vehicle imports, as well as a scrappage scheme that pays people on low incomes to ditch dirty car for clean ones. .
A briefing released to the Herald under the Official Information Act said that for New Zealand to meet the targets in the agreements, it will have to lift the ambition of current zero emissions vehicle policies.
It said the Government's current vehicle policies: the clean car discount (better known as the "feebate"), the clean car emissions standard, would not be enough to make sure New Zealand hit its vehicle commitments.
"Earlier modelling by Te Manatū Waka estimated that the Clean Car Discount and Standard, which are agreed policy, together with a high ETS price, would result in about 18 per cent zero emission vehicle sales market share in 2030. This demonstrates the importance of other ERP policies.
The briefing said that to achieve the targets signed up to at COP 26, New Zealand will have to agree to some of the zero emissions vehicles policies currently being consulted on as part of the draft ERP.
The ERP calls to increase the number of zero emissions vehicles on the road to 30 per cent of the overall fleet by 2035, and to phase out the importing of light internal combustion vehicles by 2035.
"It is feasible for New Zealand to achieve the targets set by these international commitments; however, this relies on the transport policies proposed in the Emission Reduction Plan discussion document (currently out for consultation) being adopted," the briefing said.
"By signing up to the COP26 declaration, the Government will be signalling that the ERP will introduce strong transport emission reduction policies, ahead of the conclusion of public consultation on the ERP," it said.
The briefing warned that if New Zealand "fails to adopt further transport emissions policies this decade it may not achieve these international targets and would also not achieve our domestic emission reduction commitments".
Two parts of the car and van commitment make it easier for New Zealand to achieve: the first is the focus on new vehicles, which helpfully ignores the enormous used import business that forms the backbone of the New Zealand fleet.
The second, is the helpful ambiguity around the word "leading". Officials noted that, "the use of the word 'leading' gives us some flexibility over whether New Zealand needs to achieve the 2035 or 2040 timeframe".
Officials were slightly more sceptical about signing up to targets for zero emissions tracks, as policies in this area are "less developed".
At present, the primary target for heavy vehicles is the decarbonisation of the public bus fleet by 2035. Modelling suggests this policy, and a high ETS price could mean zero emissions medium and heavy vehicle sales hit 16 per cent of total medium or heavy vehicle sales by 2035 - about half of the 30 per cent pledge.
To hit the pledged target, "trucks will also need to be decarbonised," officials said, "[h]owever the Government has not yet identified the policy settings needed to achieve this".
The draft emissions plan includes a raft of policy ideas for shifting to zero emissions light vehicles (although shifting people away from private vehicles altogether is also part of the plan).
The policies include policies to stop internal-combustion engine vehicles being imported, setting a maximum C02 limit for vehicle imports, using the tax system to disadvantage the purchase of dirty cars, and creating a scrappage scheme to effectively pay people on low incomes to ditch polluting vehicles for ocean ones.
Another policy floated in the plan is to partner on "no solutions to supply constraints for low-emissions vehicles", and to produce an EV infrastructure plan.
Climate Change Minister James Shaw said that the final ERP, published next year, would include "further plans to reduce emissions from transport in line with the commitments we have made a COP26".
"Over the last four years we have made huge progress on reducing emissions across the transport sector.
"We have made it more affordable for people to purchase clean vehicles; introduced emissions standards to make sure the vehicles we import are cleaner; invested billions of dollars of into buses and trains, cycling and walking infrastructure; invested in EV charging infrastructure around the country; and kick started the use of hydrogen as a low-emissions transport fuel for New Zealand's energy future," he said.