The National Party has dropped into the 20s in the latest Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll, while New Zealand First has risen into the double digits.
The results, which come from a poll conducted between October 1 and October 5, show Labour remains in the lead at 31.2%, though it has dropped 2.6 points since last month.
National has fallen 3.5 points to 29.6%, mirroring its result from this same poll in January. Its coalition partner NZ First has gained 2.5 points to reach 10.6%. Act has dropped slightly, by 0.1, to 6.6%.
The Green Party has gained 1.3 points to reach 12%, and Te Pāti Māori has moved up by 0.1 to 4.4%.
Translating these results into seats in the House, the centre-left bloc would have 61 seats, enough to govern, while the centre-right would have 59.
Labour would have 40 seats, National 38, the Greens 15, NZ First 13, Act 8 and Te Pāti Māori 6.
Chris Hipkins, the Labour leader, has also overtaken National’s Christopher Luxon as the country’s preferred Prime Minister.
Hipkins has gained 3.2 points to reach 20.9%, while Luxon has dropped 1.9 points to 19.8%. NZ First leader Winston Peters is down 1 point to 9.9%, the Greens’ Chlöe Swarbrick is down 2.5 points to 6.3% and Act’s David Seymour is up 0.3 to 4%.
Reacting to today’s poll, Luxon said there was “no doubt” it had been a “tough time”.
“New Zealanders voted me and our Government to fix the economy and get it growing. We’re working incredibly hard to do it,” he said.
“I don’t deny it’s been difficult and it’s still tough but ultimately they’ll get to make the decision in 2026, whether we’ve done that job or not.”
Asked about multiple polls heading in the same direction, he said it was “not surprising”.
“The message very clearly is that it’s a tough time economically for New Zealand. It’s been incredibly difficult. We are doing the right things for the long term to set our country up. We’re dealing with some very serious structural reform.
“We’ve got some good progress happening in regional New Zealand, provincial centres, the primary industries, farming confidence, all of those good things. But I acknowledge it’s still difficult, particularly in our cities, Auckland, Wellington and others, that’s the work we’re continuing to progress as a Government.”
Luxon pointed to the Government’s infrastructure pipeline, the Investment Boost scheme, and work he believes is resulting in interest rate relief.
Peters wouldn’t comment on the poll other than to say, “we’re gonna turn your polls into confetti”.
Seymour said it had been a “long, hard winter”.
“I know that people are going to be judging next year on, have you fixed what matters and done the work so that New Zealand can have a brighter future. I’d rather have my head down and my bum up than my head in the clouds right now.”
Hipkins said he was encouraged about the increase in support for Labour since the election, calling the general trajectory “positive”.
“New Zealanders can see this Government, which promised to fix everything, are making everything worse. More people are losing their jobs, the cost of living crisis continues, there are more people living homeless on our streets, businesses are collapsing by the day. Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis are making things worse, not better.”
Green Party co-leader Marama Davidson said people want to see “serious leadership” on poverty, cost of living and the climate, and believed her party was “providing that hope and those solutions”.
She was critical of Government policies and compared them with Greens’ policies she said addressed New Zealanders’ core concerns.
The cost of living remains New Zealanders’ most important issue. It is the top issue for 26.4% of people, down 1.1 points since the last poll.
The economy more generally comes in second, the most important issue for 17.4% (up 1.3 points), then health on 10.3% (down 0.8), employment on 5.1% and poverty on 4.1%.
In January, when National was last in the 20s in this poll, Labour was on 30.9%. However, with the support of NZ First and Act, the centre-right could govern at the time.
The poll was conducted in the second half of last week, which was dominated by news of the Government’s energy announcement. It received a mixed reaction, some in the industry considering it a good step, but others wanting bolder action.
It also followed Peters, as Foreign Affairs Minister, announcing New Zealand would not yet recognise Palestine as a state, suggesting there were conditions yet to be fulfilled before the Government would take that step.
In the aftermath, Labour said it would “very quickly” recognise Palestine as a state.
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Wednesday October 1 and Sunday October 5, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 13.9% were undecided on the party vote question.