National higher in new poll, but Labour still ahead

Labour leader Chris Hipkins (left) and National leader Christopher Luxon. Photo / RNZ

A new poll has the National Party on 32%, far higher than the 28.4% the party recorded in a competitor’s poll earlier this month.

A poll from Talbot Mills Research for its corporate clients has Labour ahead on 35%, followed by National on 32%.

The Greens and NZ First are both on 11%, Act is on 7% and Te Pāti Māori is on 2%.

The poll was produced by Talbot Mills for Anacta Consulting, corporate clients and reported by The Spinoff. The Herald has confirmed the reported figures are accurate. Talbot Mills also produce internal polls for the Labour Party.

The poll covered a period slightly later than the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll that rocked the National Party nearly a fortnight ago. This poll began polling on March 2, the day that Christopher Luxon fumbled his response to New Zealand’s position on the Iran war and concluded on March 12. The period encompassed the fallout from National’s disastrous Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll.

The numbers would trigger a hung Parliament, with each side having 61 seats, with an overhang of two seats.

Those numbers assume Te Pāti Māori will retain four electorate seats.

A commentary by Talbot Mills released with the poll said it “may be some solace for the Government and Prime Minister, after being pounded by near-hysterical analysis of the latest Curia poll”.

Talbot Mills’ poll reckons the public is in a more optimistic mood about the state of the country.

Forty-six per cent of respondents believed the country is heading in the right direction, while just 44% think it is going in the wrong direction.

Thirty-two per cent of people believed the economy was in an overall positive state, while 67% believed it was overall negative.

Those two metrics are important as they tend to be a strong predictor of public mood.