The Taxpayers’ Union is set to release a poll tipped to show the National Party only a couple of points above its disastrous 2020 wipeout.
The poll is done by Curia, which also does internal polls for the National Party. It is likely to be released this morning.
The Herald understands that the poll is the worst in the series since Judith Collins led the National Party, with a rounded figure of 28% circulating among MPs.
That would be about two-and-a-half points above the party’s performance in the 2020 election (25.58%) and lower than the last 1 News-Colmar Brunton Poll recorded prior to Simon Bridges losing the leadership. National scored 38.06% at the last election.
National polled 29.6% in the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia Poll last October.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon survived an embryonic coup from Senior Minister Chris Bishop at the end of last year. The coup was stopped before it got off the ground.
Bishop is scheduled to travel to India shortly, which means he will be absent from next Tuesday’s caucus meeting.
This poll will likely spark renewed leadership speculation, although Luxon supporters arguing the virtues of stability have not been hard to find. While there was no widespread appetite to roll Luxon, there is speculation that continued poor polling could see him resign.
On Thursday night, several MPs and staff had seen the poll or claimed to have seen it. There was no desire to initiate a leadership challenge on that number, but MPs acknowledged that there would be scrutiny placed on Luxon after such a poor performance.
Nicola Willis, the National deputy leader, told Newstalk ZB this morning “it is not a good number”.
“If that was the number National got on the actual election, that would not be an acceptable result. We have to do better than that.”
She said the party needed to look at the poll result and consider what Kiwis are thinking.
“I am not happy with that number. I don’t think our National Party team would be happy with that number. I don’t think the Prime Minister would be satisfied with that number.”
Willis said the risk was a change of Government which she believed would be “terrible for New Zealand”.
She said it hadn’t been a “great week for the Prime Minister”. But leaders across the world are struggling with poll results, Willis said.
Asked if Luxon was the right person for the leadership, she said, “he has the backing of the National Party caucus”.
She didn’t believe there would be a coup before the election.
Speaking to Ryan Bridge TODAY this morning, Winston Peters, leader of NZ First and coalition partner of National’s, said: “It is not good, is it?”
“You can’t say anything else. It is not the end of everything. But those of us who are not in the National Party, on this matter, on the outside, it is not good, no.”
He said it didn’t affect NZ First’s plans, noting his party was on a mission to ensure its 2023 success wasn’t “a one-election wonder”.
“This country was saved from being a Myanmar or a Venezuela in 2023 and that mission is still required in 2026.”
Asked if he could work with Luxon as Prime Minister again after the election, Peters said in any crisis “you take the circumstances you have got, you make the very most of it”.
“Make the very most of it is what NZ First is going to do.”
Collins said this morning the public shouldn’t be “spooked” by the poll. She didn’t believe National backbenchers had been.
Collins, the former leader and a current minister, said it was a “tough job” being Prime Minister at a time like this.
“I think the whole world is going through this really weird space at the moment. There aren’t too many Prime Ministers or Presidents who aren’t getting bashed around in polls. People like certainty.”
She believed it to be a “temporary thing”.
“We still have a long way to go. We can start seeing the economy turn around.”
Asked about Luxon’s Iran misspeak earlier this week, Collins said there was only so much that could be said in the early stages of such a conflict.
“It is really difficult when people want definitive answers on everything, but you just can’t say it because of security reasons or because you’re waiting for information.”
Paul Goldsmith, the Justice Minister, told Ryan Bridge he hadn’t seen the poll.
“There is no secret; it has been a couple of reasonably tough weeks, but we are going to turn that around. No need to panic,” he said.
He said Kiwis had faced years of tough economic times and New Zealanders were “grumpy”. Goldsmith went on to blame Labour for that.
The National MP believed things would swing back to National at the election when New Zealanders were faced with a choice between it and Labour.
He gave his support to Luxon.
“He won’t be going anywhere. He is doing a very good job.”
Taxpayers’ Union executive director Jordan Williams, appearing on Heather du Plessis-Allan Drive on Newstalk ZB on Thursday, confirmed a poll was running on Friday and that politicians “as a courtesy” had been informed of the results.
He said the poll would be “likely to attract a little bit of attention”.
“It’s no secret that it’s been a tough few weeks for the Government. This poll may or may not reflect that,” he said.
MPs contacted by the Herald echoed these remarks, noting it had been a difficult few weeks for the party and they were expecting the polls to reflect those difficulties.
Luxon has come under pressure this week for his handling of New Zealand’s response to the United States and Israel’s bombing of Iran.
His Monday post-Cabinet press conference was criticised in the media and drew comparisons with former Labour MP Clare Curran’s disastrous handling of parliamentary questions shortly before she resigned from the Ardern Government.
Luxon stumbled repeatedly when asked to explain the Government’s position before claiming that he “couldn’t be any clearer”.
He later admitted he’d misspoken when he said “any action” to stop the Iranian regime would be “a good thing”.