Mike Hosking: The only election question in my mind - how badly will Labour lose?

OPINION:

With roughly a year to go to the next election there is little, if any, doubt in my mind the Government has already lost.

The only debate is how badly.

Small disclaimer - a lot can happen in a year. But barring the opposition parties shooting themselves in the foot, Labour is going to lose.

The polls tell only part of the story, the rest is there for all to see on a daily basis.

The fact the discussion has already begun over Jacinda Ardern's future tells a lot of the story.

The numbers on personal popularity have tanked, and I suspect have further to fall.

Speculation as to whether, as one headline put it, "She goes down with the ship" (or bails) is a damning report card in the winter of 2022.

Some simple questions give you a guide as to why this is the way it is.

Name me one substantive thing that is going well for them.

The economy? Record inflation, record domestic inflation. In case you just answered: "Oh it's the war."

The number of people living in cars, we learned last week, has exploded, despite the promises to sort it.

Record levels of demand for social housing.

Massive dissent over Three Waters from dozens of councils, not to mention ratepayers over, 1, a poor idea, and 2, a poor idea badly handled.

A centralised polytech that's failed to get off the ground, has a deficit that's possibly more than $100 million, and a bloke who ran the place while not running the place, on full pay, until he quit.

A He Puapua programme that hasn't gone to Cabinet because the minister knows he can't get it past them because the Māori who have been consulted (the rest of us haven't been ) want something so radical he knows it's dead in the water.

A crime scenario that touches each and every one of us as gangs run rampant, as do kids who failed to go to school, and as a result decided driving cars through shop windows was their future.

An immigration policy that's letting next to no one in, so employers continue to scream at 1, the fact no one is arriving and therefore there are few if any to fill the ludicrous gaps in every sector of this country, and 2, pulling their hair out at the paperwork required and timeframe to even become accredited employers.

A health system that couldn't handle winter, and health staff in crisis the likes of which we haven't seen in years, despite the promises to address it, the backlog for elective surgery up more than 250 per cent.

Gaurav Sharma was expelled from the Labour caucus. Photo / Mark Mitchell

A roading-come-climate-change-come-transport ideology that sees hundreds of millions of dollars wasted on projects that are late, over budget, and don't work even if they do get finished.

Central cities that aren't being frequented because of these polices and the ensuing businesses that suffer because of it.

Presumably, the opposition parties are totting up the myriad working groups and investigations that have been launched over the past five years that 1, haven't even reported back, and 2, those that have, that have changed what?

The Covid response that still pervades our daily life with masks and orange settings that few, if any, now follow, due to the realisation that so much of it was a panicked reaction early to a health system that couldn't cope, and two years on, as mentioned, still can't.

That covers a bit, but not all of it, and that's before we come to poor old Gaurav Sharma, who in essence confirmed what many of us knew or suspected already. That all the talk of kindness and being open honest and transparent was essentially a con.

The fact they handled his expulsion the way they have, is another sign of when it comes to delivery whether it be policy or discipline, they can't organise themselves out of a wet paper bag.

So back to the question, what's the bit that's firing? Poverty stats? Climate change progress? Consumer confidence?

You could argue the jobless stats, but most countries have low unemployment by default.

The winter of discontent the Government refers to by way of excuse is not because it's winter, but because the people running this country are fundamentally incompetent and that's why you can sit here in August of 2022 and know what will unfold this time next year.

This second term of Labour is frighteningly similar to the third term of the last Labour government when they imploded through arrogance and hubris. History repeats, and clearly they didn't learn anything from last time.