She is expected to be replaced as the Hawke’s Bay region lead minister for the cyclone recovery by Kieran McAnulty, whose Wairarapa electorate bumps into the southern end of the region.
The role of the Hawke’s Bay region’s cyclone recovery minister has now moved from Stuart Nash to Whaitiri to McAnulty - the only other MP in that region is Anna Lorck who is not a minister.
It is understood Whaitiri did not tell anyone in Labour of her intentions ahead of the news breaking last night.
Even her colleagues in Labour’s Māori caucus did not know (or at least nobody who passed it on to others) - nor had she raised any disgruntlement over her position with the party’s leadership.
It broke while Prime Minister Chris Hipkins was on a flight travelling to London for the King’s coronation – he heard the news when he landed. He told media there that he would not comment more fully until he knew more, but said he had not heard from Whaitiri.
After the recent departure of former PM Jacinda Ardern, that will leave Labour with just 62 votes - two more than the 60 it needs for a majority. Ardern’s absence means there are now 119 MPs, so 60 is required for the majority instead of 61.
If Labour loses two more MPs it will have to rely on the Greens to pass legislation.
That will make it harder for Napier MP Stuart Nash to step down early, should he wish to.
Labour started the term with 65 MPs, but lost Hamilton West to National after Gaurav Sharma was expelled and Ardern has left and will not be replaced as Mt Albert MP ahead of the election.
While Whaitiri’s move has shocked many in Labour, some are not surprised she was dissatisfied - after losing her Cabinet position over alleged staff bullying, she was reinstated as a minister but not restored to Cabinet itself, despite keeping a clear record since then.
She was also close with former MP Louisa Wall, who also has bad beef with Labour and is widely expected to stand for Te Pāti Māori in the Manurewa electorate this election.
She likely also had some lingering feeling that she had been unfairly treated in the handling of that case.
It leaves Hipkins with another mess on his hands within just six months of becoming PM - and his third mini-reshuffle.
There is some concern in Labour that Whaitiri will take aim at them, including Hipkins’ policy reset and claim he is trying to edge away from co-governance measures. It will be hoping the opposite is true - and that the move increases the chances of a good relationship between Te Pāti Māori and Labour.
By joining Te Pāti Māori, Whaitiri is gone immediately from the Labour caucus. However, Labour will not want a byelection in her Ikaroa-Rāwhiti electorate ahead of the election and will not invoke the waka-jumping legislation.
If she doesn’t resign immediately, she would stay on as an MP until the election.
A byelection is not required because it is within six months from the election. However, that requires 75 per cent support from Parliament. That means if Whaitiri tries to force a byelection, she will likely fail unless the National Party decides to make mischief with it and refuses to support keeping the seat vacant.
That is very unlikely – it would not want to be accused of playing politics with the seat, given the cyclone damage issues.
