Labour leader Chris Hipkins. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Labour leader Chris Hipkins. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Labour is closing the gap with National on the issues Kiwis care about according to a new poll, which also found almost two-thirds of New Zealanders support a capital gains tax in some form.
Most voters still think National is better than Labour when it comes to dealing with thetop five issues affecting the country, according to the latest Ipsos New Zealand Issues Monitor, a poll that asks voters about the issues that matter most and which party is best at addressing them.
The Government got a performance rating of 4.7, the highest since it took office, up from 4.5 in August.
Inflation and the cost of living remains the number one issue for voters, a position it has held for more than a year.
Health comes in at second place, a position it has occupied since the last poll in August. Health’s significance is rising with 41% of people rating it in their top three issues compared to 32% in September last year.
The significance of inflation is slowly falling, with 55% of people rating it among their top three issues compared to 62% in September last year.
The top issues affecting New Zealanders according to the Ipsos Issues Monitor poll. Graphic / Ipsos
The economy, housing, and crime round out the top five issues. None have changed drastically in significance since the last poll in August.
The poll appears to show Labour slowly winning back voters’ trust on several key issues, and closing the gap with National in others.
Thirty per cent of voters now think Labour is the party best at dealing with inflation, up from 23% in February. National has fallen over the same period from 39% to 35%.
The gap between the coalition parties and the parties of opposition on the issue of inflation is just three points.
Labour has opened up a convincing lead on the issue of health.
At the election a year ago, National was the party that voters saw as best on health, and was still ahead of Labour last February on the issue with 33% to 28% for Labour.
Labour has now opened up a nine point gap with National on health, with 36% of voters saying it was the best party on the issue, up three from August. National polled 27%.
The gap between the coalition parties and the opposition on health was 12 points in favour of the opposition.
National is seen as better on more issues than Labour, but Labour is closing the gap. Graphic / Ipsos
National still polls convincingly on the economy, with 40% of voters saying it was best at handling economic issues (down two), compared to 29% for Labour, (up two). The coalition parties hold a 12 point lead on the economy.
National’s performance on the economy has slipped over the year, falling from 47% in February, while Labour has closed the gap, with its rating rising from 22% in February.
Overall, National is seen as most capable of managing 10 of the top 20 issues, with three of these equally as capable as Labour. Labour is now perceived as capable of tackling nine of the top 20 issues.
This is quite a fight back from Labour, which was seen as the most capable party at handling just two of the top 20 issues in the last Ipsos poll before the 2023 election, while National was seen as best on 14 issues.
Ipsos New Zealand’s managing director Carin Hercock said that despite news inflation had fallen to 2.2% in the September quarter, the poll “shows that inflation is still the most important issue impacting more than half of New Zealanders”.
“With housing, utility and insurance costs still increasing, we can see that New Zealanders aged under 50, who are more likely to have larger households, are still feeling the impacts of high inflation.”
Ipsos New Zealand’s research director Amanda Dudding said that across the political spectrum “inflation and healthcare remain the top two issues facing New Zealanders”.
“National is still the party New Zealanders see as most capable of managing inflation, the economy and crime, while Labour leads the way on healthcare, poverty and inequality, unemployment, household debt and education, with both parties neck and neck on housing,” Dudding said.
The poll also asked whether New Zealanders would support a capital gains tax.
The Labour Party is currently having an internal debate on tax, which is likely to result in the party running on a capital gains or wealth tax at the next election.
Sixty-five per cent of respondents said they would support a capital gains tax in some form. The most supported capital gains tax situation is for the sale of an investment property (57% support), followed by the sale of a business (43% support).
However, a large majority of New Zealanders do not support a capital gains tax on the sale of a family home, which was opposed by 78% of people. There was also strong opposition to a capital gains tax on other assets such as boats, cars and paintings, which was opposed by 64%.
This could pose a challenge to Labour should it head down the capital gains tax route. In the past the party has faced difficulties when articulating the detail of what would and would not be touched by a capital gains tax.
The Ipsos Issues Monitor interviewed a sample of 1003 New Zealanders over the month of October.
Thomas Coughlan is Deputy Political Editor and covers politics from Parliament. He has worked for the Herald since 2021 and has worked in the press gallery since 2018.
