Hung Parliament predicted, cost of living increases as priority issue in latest poll

The polls are tight on whether Chris Hipkins or Christopher Luxon will be the Prime Minister after the next election. Photo / NZME

The formation of the next Government remains difficult to predict as the latest poll suggests voting held today would deliver a hung Parliament.

The Taxpayers’ Union- Curia poll, released today, found neither the current centre-right nor the centre-left bloc would have enough seats to form a Government.

The poll, which tested 1000 respondents between February 1-3 and had a margin of error of 3.1%, had Labour topping the rest with 34.1%, having dropped 0.3 percentage points on the last poll in January.

National had also dipped 0.2 points to 31.3%. New Zealand First, which recorded its best-ever result in the last Curia poll (11.9%), slipped to 10.5%.

The Green Party was the only party currently in Parliament to increase its support since January, jumping 2.6 points to 10.3%.

Act dropped 0.3 points to 6.7% while Te Pāti Māori dropped 0.1 points to 2.9%.

Regarding seat allocation based on these numbers, the left bloc of Labour (43), Greens (13, up 3) and Te Pāti Māori (4) would have 60 seats, equal with the right bloc of National (39), NZ First (13, down 2) and Act (8, down 1).

The calculation assumed there were no overhang seats for National and Te Pāti Māori.

In the preferred PM rankings, Christopher Luxon gained 2.5 points to 22%, stretching his lead over Labour’s Chris Hipkins, who was unchanged on 18%.

In the days before the poll, Luxon was highly visible in his response to several North Island weather events, including the fatal Mount Maunganui slip.

NZ First’s Winston Peters had jumped 2.8 points to 12.5% during a time he had repeatedly voiced his opposition to the Government’s free trade deal with India.

The cost of living remained the most important issue, jumping 7.4 points to 34.9%, which was its highest result since May, 2024.

The economy was the second most important on 12% with health in third on 9.2%.

Adam Pearse is the Deputy Political Editor and part of the NZ Herald’s Press Gallery team based at Parliament in Wellington. He has worked for NZME since 2018, reporting for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei and the Herald in Auckland.