You simply couldn't ask for a better time to be the Opposition.
So, it will be of real concern to National Party strategists that given all of these opportunities, this week's Curia poll results showed Christopher Luxon's personal ratings being in freefall.
Luxon has lost nearly a third of his support as preferred Prime Minister in the last two months. More New Zealanders now have an unfavourable impression of him and his performance than a favourable one.
His signature tax policy is deeply unpopular. Some 65 per cent are opposed, according to the 1 News/Kantar poll. Too many of Luxon's interviews descend into corporate word jumbles. Mutterings by National MPs about his performance have started to reach the ears of journalists.
Around the rest of the world, the global inflation spike has been a government killer – Scott Morrison lost the Australian election, Justin Trudeau and Joe Biden are well behind in the polls, and the UK Conservatives are in meltdown.
Yet in New Zealand, the polls are still 50/50, with Curia now showing Labour pulling ahead of National again and Ardern 20 points ahead of Luxon as preferred prime minister.
Luxon has had every political advantage you could ask for, yet the more New Zealanders see of him, the less they seem to like him.
If in the worst of times, Luxon can't seal the deal, what happens if economic conditions improve, even marginally?
That possibility seems much more likely this week than it has in some time. Domestic demand has remained strong and new statistics showed wages climbing at a record rate – crucially now pulling ahead of inflation.
And projections by the Reserve Bank this week show inflation has likely peaked – with energy costs finally falling and petrol down more than 25c a litre from recent highs. The bank is talking down the chances of a recession, adamant we are emerging from the woods, albeit slowly.
If these projections hold true, Labour may soon to be able to point to falling inflation, rising wages and low unemployment as evidence it helped families weather the economic storm.
The job for Labour now must be to capitalise on this break in the clouds – to lay out a plan for economic recovery and a clearer message on the contrast between Ardern's approach and Luxon's tax cuts for the rich.
The past week's Gaurav Sharma meltdown is exactly the kind of distraction the Government can't afford if it wants to get back on the front foot.
More fundamentally though, Labour will need to tighten up its political management and do a better job at getting on top of controversial areas.
The political fightback Chris Hipkins is leading since taking over the Police portfolio needs to be an example followed by more of his colleagues. He's acknowledged problems, rolled out policies to address them that have won plaudits from experts, and drawn a stronger political contrast with the Opposition in the House and in media interviews.
If the Government can lift its game, and the economic news continues to improve, the pressure will really be on Luxon to prove he hasn't blown his golden opportunity and that he has what it takes to turn his political fortunes around.
Hayden Munro was the campaign manager for Labour's successful 2020 election win. He now works in corporate PR for Wellington-based firm Capital Communications and Government Relations.
