National’s campaign chairman rates Labour’s chances in the Hamilton West byelection over his own party’s, doubling down on claims National is not the favourite to win back the seat it held from 2008 to 2020.
National’s recently chosen candidate, Tama Potaka, agrees with the party’s previous statements that he is the underdog, but he would not speculate as to who he thinks is most likely to become the new MP for Hamilton West.
On Sunday, Potaka - chief executive of Auckland iwi Ngāi Tai ki Tāmaki - was selected as National’s candidate to contest the December 10 byelection, triumphing over business director Rachel Afeaki–Taumoepeau and health professional Dr Frances Hughes.
The byelection was triggered three weeks ago when Dr Gaurav Sharma, who won the seat in 2020, resigned from Parliament following a nasty split from the Labour Party, where he was expelled from the caucus and as a party member for bringing Labour into disrepute by repeatedly airing claims senior Labour personnel had bullied him - claims Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern refuted.
Sharma had since set up the Momentum Party and would stand in the byelection to regain his seat in Parliament before the general election next year.
Having mostly resided in Auckland since 2017, Potaka had shifted to Hamilton in the last week to stay with family and friends for the campaign.
It was understood Potaka lived in the Hamilton area for roughly a decade until 2017 as general manager of Tainui Group Holdings. His wife Ariana is also believed to be from the region.
Should he win the byelection, Potaka would be permanently based in Hamilton.
National campaign chairman Chris Bishop said Potaka had strong family and business ties to Hamilton.
“He’s an outstanding candidate, we’ve got every confidence in him and we’re looking forward to a good, robust byelection race,” he said.
Asked who he believed was the favourite to win, Bishop said Labour’s 2020 win crowned candidate Georgie Dansey as favourite.
“I think we definitely are the underdog. Labour won that seat, it’s traditionally a bellwether, marginal seat [so] they start as favourites, but we’ll be putting our best foot forward.”
Bishop wouldn’t go so far as to say Dansey had a better chance of winning than Potaka, but acknowledged it would be a tough race.
In an interview with the Herald, Potaka said he supported the party’s statement that National was the underdog but would not name which of his rivals was currently in pole position.
“I don’t have a view on that, I just said the party’s been recorded as making that statement and my job now is to seek the trust of the voters in Hamilton West and get them to vote for me,” he said.
Potaka said he had never met Dansey - who owned Body Fit Training in Te Awamutu - and was not focused on her byelection chances.
On Sharma, Potaka said he had no comment on how Sharma had served his constituents and he had also not met him.
Prior to Potaka’s selection as candidate, National Party leader Christopher Luxon had set expectations the selection would prove his desire for more diversity in the party, after the issue was highlighted in photos of the four Pākehā men in blue suits who comprised National’s shortlist to contest the Tauranga byelection earlier this year.
Former Hamilton West MP from 2008-2020 Tim Macindoe and former Hamilton mayor Andrew King - both Pākehā men - pulled out of the running prior to the candidate shortlist being announced.
Potaka believed National had done a number of things to support Māori development, particularly in the area of treaty claim settlements, and didn’t feel pressure as Māori within the party.
“The key focus for me is less about pressure around diversity and more about issues that confront people in Hamilton West.”
On that topic, Potaka considered national issues such as the cost of living and crime to be the most concerning for Hamilton residents.
“Hamilton families need the Government to keep the economy strong in order to prioritise the tide of crime making many people feel unsafe in their own homes and when they, and their children, out in the community.”
In addition to Dansey and Sharma, Potaka would be competing against Act MP Dr James McDowall and The Opportunities Party’s Naomi Pocock.