Christopher Luxon is attempting to hose down speculation he is considering resigning as Prime Minister after a poll showing National at its lowest level in more than four years.
Speaking to Newstalk ZB’s Heather du Plessis-Allan on Friday evening, the Prime Minister said he is “absolutely not” considering resigning and was instead fixated on “the future of our kids and grandkids”.
Luxon argued he had the “skills that actually are very useful at this time when we’re trying to navigate some challenging global environments”. The biggest challenge was the economy, and “I understand the economy well”.
“I appreciate there’s a lot of Kiwis still doing it tough and are challenged by that and are frustrated by that, as I am.”
He said all of his ministers were telling him they backed him.
Luxon also said that there were many public polls, but he focused only on internal ones that were processed in Britain. He did not expound on what the benefit of that was.
“If there was a problem, I would be doing something about it,” the Prime Minister said. “But we are a long way away from what we’ve seen ... [in a Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll] today.”
Luxon did not reveal if there was a polling number which would force him to consider his future.
The National Party has sunk to its lowest result in the Taxpayers’-Union Curia poll since the Judith Collins era, and would lose several MPs should it be replicated at the November election.
As the Herald exclusively revealed this morning, National is sitting on 28.4%, down 2.9 points from February’s poll. That is the worst result for the party on this poll since November 2021, just before Luxon became leader.
Speculation has mounted that Luxon may be considering his future and about to resign.
This was fuelled when National Party staff were invited to Friday drinks. The Herald understands these drinks are normal, although the invitation appears to have gone wider.
There was further speculation when Luxon cancelled a planned visit to the Auckland Boat Show on Sunday, although the Herald has been told this was cancelled before Luxon even knew a poll would be published.
Friday’s poll was the worst result for National in the Taxpayers’ Union-Curia poll since 2021, the year the poll began. The next worst was 29.6%, which it received last year.
If these results were reproduced at the election, National would receive 36 seats. That is below the 48 it received at the 2023 election, meaning several MPs will be out of a job.
National MPs and staff spoken to by the Herald on Thursday night, before the poll’s publication, were aware of the result for the party. While there was no desire to initiate a leadership challenge against Luxon on that number, it was acknowledged that the Prime Minister would face scrutiny.
The poll results show Labour on 34.4%, up 0.3. National is down 2.9 to 28.4%.
The Greens gain 0.2 to 10.5%, while New Zealand First drops 0.8 to 9.7%. Act gains 0.8 to 7.5%, while Te Pāti Māori gains 0.3 to 3.2%.
The Taxpayers’ Union explanation of the results says the combined projected seats for the centre-left increase by one to 61. The combined seats for the centre-right drop by one to 59.
On these numbers, the centre-left bloc could form a Government, said the Taxpayers’ Union.
Labour would have 44 seats, up one from the last poll, National is down three to 36 seats.
New Zealand First and the Greens both remain on 13 seats. Act gains two seats to 10, while Te Pāti Māori remains on four.
“This calculation assumes there are no overhang seats for National and Te Pāti Māori,” said the Taxpayers’ Union.
In terms of preferred Prime Minister, Chris Hipkins of the Labour Party is up 4.7 points to 22.7%, while Luxon is down 1 point to 21%.
Winston Peters loses 2.1 points to 10.4%, Chlöe Swarbrick loses 2.1 points to 4.6%, and David Seymour is up 0.4 points to 5.2%.
These results, which come from a poll conducted between March 1 and March 3, follow a difficult week for the Prime Minister and the National Party.
The Herald first revealed the latest Ipsos Issues Monitor showed Labour remained ahead of National on which party Kiwis believed to be the most capable of handling key issues like the cost of living.
While that survey found National had made some ground, Labour was ahead or equal on 15 of the 20 issues, compared with just three for Luxon’s party.
Later on Monday, Luxon faced scrutiny over New Zealand’s position on the United States and Israel’s strikes against Iran.
His performance in his post-Cabinet press conference was criticised, with comparisons made to Labour MP Clare Curran’s disastrous handling of parliamentary questions shortly before her resignation from the Ardern Administration.
Luxon on Tuesday said he “misspoke” when he said “any action” to stop the Iranian regime would be “a good thing”.
However, later that day, Luxon was forced to return to Parliament late at night to correct an answer he gave during Question Time about visa extensions during the Middle East conflict.
In light of those corrections, Green Party co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick said the Prime Minister was “not across his brief” and “just doesn’t seem to know what is going on”.
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the Taxpayers’ Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Sunday March 1 and Tuesday March 3, 2026, has a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1% and 5.1% were undecided on the party vote question.
Jamie Ensor is the NZ Herald’s chief political reporter, based in the press gallery at Parliament. He was previously a TV reporter and digital producer in the Newshub press gallery office. He was a finalist in 2025 for Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards.