Labour’s 34 seats, 16 from the Greens and four from the Māori Party would only give the left bloc 54.
Chris Hipkins and Christopher Luxon were equal in the preferred prime minister stakes on 22.5 per cent. Hipkins had dropped 1.5 points with Luxon rising 6.6 points.
New Zealand First was close to the five per cent threshold to enter Parliament, sitting on 4.6 per cent in tonight’s poll.
The poll was conducted between September 3-9, including the time when many of Labour’s main election promises were announced.
The last Newshub Reid Research poll in August found National and Act could govern alone. National had jumped 1.3 percentage points on the previous poll to 36.6 per cent and Act was up by the same amount to 12.1 per cent.
Labour had dipped 3.6 points to 32.3 per cent.
However, Hipkins still had a strong lead over Luxon in the preferred Prime Minister stakes, sitting at 24 per cent over Luxon’s 15.9 per cent.
Today’s campaign activities have largely been shadowed by the anticipation of Treasury’s Pre-Election Economic and Fiscal update (Prefu), which provides a telling view of the state of the Government’s books.
In Treasury’s interim financial statements for the 11 months to May, the fiscal position (released on July 5) had deteriorated by $2.1b when compared with forecasts published in the May Budget.
Willis, also National’s finance spokeswoman, said she would be releasing the party’s fiscal plan in the weeks after the Prefu but before advance voting began on October 2.
National Party leader Christopher Luxon and deputy leader Nicola Willis at the Malvina Major Retirement Village in Johnsonville. Photo / Mark Mitchell
She said she would take time to go over what the Treasury published and ensure her plan was checked by external assessors.
Hipkins, speaking from Nelson where he made a dentist visit in light of Labour’s free dental policy for under 30-year-olds, said National’s refusal to release some modelling behind its tax package showed the party had something to hide.
“The fact that they’re not releasing the costings is clearly a sign that they know they don’t add up. If they were really rock solid in their costings, they’d be saying more than ‘just trust us’.”
Hipkins accepted the Government’s finances were in a “challenging position”, but he said the economy was turning a corner with inflation coming down.
Asked if Labour might need to adjust its election promises depending on what was revealed tomorrow, he said: “I’m confident that what we’re putting before the electorate will balance, it will be paid for.”
Labour leader Chris Hipkins with a collection of balloons to his likeness while campaigning in Nelson today. Photo / Tim Cuff
On the $4 billion that the Government had already asked public service bosses to trim, he said: “None of both public sector leaders are delighted to have to reduce the baselines, but we’ve made $4 billion worth of savings that we think we can do without cutting into the bone of public service.”
Hipkins said it was “another example of the sorts of divisive policies that Winston Peters would bring to a National-Act-New Zealand First Government”.
Luxon said he believed Peters was wrong but didn’t answer questions as to whether this position was enough for Luxon to rule out working with Peters in a future government. Peters and Hipkins have both ruled out working with each other.
Adam Pearse is a political reporter in the NZ Herald Press Gallery team, based at Parliament. He has worked for NZME since 2018, covering sport and health for the Northern Advocate in Whangārei before moving to the NZ Herald in Auckland, covering Covid-19 and crime.
