Election 2023: Last pre-election Talbot Mills shows NZ First rising and in the box seat, National and Greens rising, Act and Labour dropping

A new Talbot Mills poll has shown NZ First rising again to 6.4 per cent into a hypothetical kingmaker position, while Labour continues to drop and Act drops back into the single digits.

The final pre-election NZ Insight poll by Talbot Mills Research for its corporate clients also has National rising to 38 per cent (up two since the last poll a month ago) and Labour dropping again to 27 per cent (down 3).

The Greens have nudged up to 13 per cent, the party’s highest result in the poll since mid-2017. NZ First is up from 5.4 per cent in the September poll.

Act is on 9 per cent, down one. Te Pāti Māori is at 3.1 per cent and The Opportunities Party (Top) are on 2.3 per cent.

National leader Christopher Luxon and Labour leader Chris Hipkins were neck and neck as preferred Prime Minister on 29 per cent – Hipkins had bumped up one point, and Luxon had gone up three points.

The poll of 1027 eligible voters was taken from September 22–28 and has a margin of error of +/- 3 per cent. Talbot Mills also polls for the Labour Party.

The result would give National and Act 58 seats between them – needing NZ First’s eight seats to secure a majority.

Peters’ eight seats would also be enough for a Labour-Green-Te Pāti Māori grouping to get over the line (they would have 54 seats between them) - but that would require both Labour leader Chris Hipkins and Peters to break their promises not to work with each other.

It comes as National ramps up its efforts to try and persuade voters to vote for National so it doesn’t need to rely on NZ First. It will be hoping that its rise to 38 per cent in the poll means that message is starting to get some traction – unless it is taking that support from Act.

National Party leader Christopher Luxon said a blunt “no” today when he was asked if he believed NZ First would be a stable coalition partner: “That’s why I don’t want to work with him.”

Former PM Sir John Key also put up a social media video today with a thinly coded message to voters, urging them to vote for certainty by voting for National.

The Talbot Mills poll showed that 48 per cent of voters expected NZ First to side with National, including 66 per cent of National voters. However, 31 per cent of Labour voters thought he would go with Labour, and 28 per cent thought he would support National.

The polls also continued to carry bad news for Labour on the confidence front: 78 per cent believed the economy was in a bad shape and 59 per cent of voters said the country was on the wrong track – up four points.