Election 2023: Labour’s first-term MPs - who’s safe and who’s on the danger list

Some of Labour's 2020 intake: From left, top: Camilla Belich, Naisi Chen, Ibrahim Omer, Ingrid Leary, Barbara Edmonds; Bottom: Vanushi Walters, Helen White, Rachel Brooking, Ayesha Verrall and Anae Neru Leavasa.

Labour’s two big election contests in Mt Albert and Wellington Central have highlighted the squeeze on seats this election, especially for the huge intake in the class of 2020.

In all, 23 new Labour MPs were elected in 2020 in the second red wave under Jacinda Ardern and it was seen as one of the most talented intakes in years.

But only about half of them can be considered safe in this year’s election, on October 14.

Most of the safe ones are in electorate seats or, like list MPs Helen White and Omer Ibrahim, have secured the Labour nomination in the safe seats of Mt Albert and Wellington Central.

Neither is expected to do well as their predecessors but it would be astonishing if White did not hold Mt Albert which is held by former Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and if Ibrahim did not win Wellington Central which is held by her former deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson.

Ardern is resigning from Parliament on April 15 and Robertson is going into the election as a list-only candidate.

Helen White defeated fellow first-term list MP Camilla Belich, the candidate preferred by Labour’s former and current leadership, and Ibrahim defeated Claire Szabo, who stepped down as party president less than five months ago.

Two of the class of 2020 have ruled themselves out: Emily Henderson who holds Whangarei with a 431 majority, announced last week she wants to return to the law; and Gaurav Sharma fell out badly with the caucus, resigned from Parliament and forced a byelection in Hamilton West which Labour lost to National.

Three other list MPs joined the caucus last year, Lemauga Lydia Sosene, Dan Rosewarne and Soraya Peke-Mason, after the resignations of veteran list MPs.

The safe ones in the class of 2020 are:

- Rachel Brooking, currently a list MP who is expected to win David Clark’s Dunedin North seat which he currently holds with a majority of 15,521 votes.

- Barbara Edmonds, elevated to cabinet already and is expected to retain Mana which she won by 16,244 votes.

- Ingrid Leary who is expected to keep Taieri (taking in the old Dunedin South) which she won with 12,398 votes.

- Anae Neru Leavasa who is expected to keep the new seat of Takanini, currently held with a majority of 7724.

- Steph Lewis who holds Whanganui with a majority of 8191.

- Tracey McLellan who holds Banks Peninsula with a majority of 13,156.

- Ibrahim Omer who will contest Wellington Central currently held by Grant Robertson with a majority of 18,878.

- Tangi Utikere, the party’s chief whip, who holds Palmerston North with a majority of 12,508.

- Helen White who will contest Jacinda Ardern’s Mt Albert seat with a majority of 21,246 votes.

- Arena Williams who holds Manurewa with a majority of 17,179 votes.

- Ayesha Verrall, the Health Minister who will get one of the highest list places.

The factors which will determine whether the others from the class of 2020 are safe are how many seats Labour is entitled to on the Party vote, and where they sit on the list if they do not win an electorate seat.

Traditionally, Labour in Government has given preference to ministers in list rankings and this election, several ministers are in danger of losing their seats and using their list placing for re-election besides the spots expected to be used by Grant Robertson, Jan Tinetti, Ayesha Verrall, Willie Jackson, Andrew Little, David Parker and Speaker Adrian Rurawhe.

Peeni Henare has a majority of only 927 in Tamaki Makaurau, Priyanca Radhakrishnan 635 in Maungakiekie, and Willow-Jean Prime only 163 in Northland. The Hutt South seat of new Police Minister Ginny Andersen with a majority of 3777 could be threatened in a big swing. And while demoted minister Stuart Nash has a majority of 5856 in Napier, he could be vulnerable if the response to Cyclone Gabrielle is not considered good enough.

Claire Szabo in 2019 soon after being elected Labour president. Photo / Audrey Young

Former president Claire Szabo should also expect to get a reasonable list placing.

Camilla Belich is likely to get a winnable list seat with the backing of Auckland as is the highly regarded Vanushi Walters who holds Upper Harbour with a majority of just 2392.

The talented Belich, having missed out on Mt Albert, has no winnable seat despite getting the endorsement of two former Prime Ministers.

The obvious vacancy opens up in Auckland Central where White unsuccessfully stood in 2017 against National’s Nikki Kaye and in 2020 against the successful Green candidate Chloe Swarbrick. However, Belich is understood to have eschewed that prospect.

She could go back to Epsom where she flew the party flag in 2020, and North Shore is also a possibility - but neither is remotely winnable for her. Nominations for Auckland Central and North shore close on March 31.

Camilla Belich is said to have dismissed the prospect of standing in Auckland Central against Chloe Swarbrick. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Naisi Chen, who stood in Botany last time against Christopher Luxon before he became National leader, should get a winnable list position, not only as Labour’s only Chinese MP but the Parliament’s only Chinese MP.

Labour currently has 64 MPs, although only 55 are seeking re-election, with nine of them retiring: Jacinda Ardern, David Clark, Aupito William Sio, Poto Williams, Marja Lubeck, Tamati Coffey, Jamie Strange, Paul Eagle, and Emily Henderson.

It’s polling in the latest 1News Kantar poll would translate to 46 seats, meaning that its numbers would be culled by a further nine.

Some of those may well be from older intakes rather than the current first-termers. But it puts the squeeze on them which is why they are scrambling for the security of an electorate seat.

Dan Rosewarne, who stood in Waimakariri last election, tried to secure the Christchurch East nomination where Poto Williams is retiring but lost out to local community activist Reuben Davidson.

That will likely leave Rosewarne among those current list MPs whose fate may again be determined by the list and with the tide going out. Likewise Angela Roberts and Soraya Peke-Mason. Lemauga Lydia Sosene could go for the Mangere nomination but if she doesn’t get it, she may also be stranded at the election.

Rachel Boyack holds Nelson with just a 4525 majority but it is an electorate that tends to reward incumbents.

Others on the danger list are Tukituki MP Anna Lorck (majority 1590), Northcote MP Shanan Halbert (2534), New Plymouth MP Glen Bennett (2555), Otaki MP Terisa Ngobi (2988) and Illam MP Sarah Pallet (3463).