Chris Hipkins speaks to the media as he opens the Chinese Moon Festival today from Mt Eden War Memorial Hall in Auckland.
Video / Finn Little
OPINION
“Bugger” was Labour leader Chris Hipkins’ first word in announcing he had Covid-19.
Bugger indeed. It is the same word uttered by the dog in the famous 1990s Toyota ad when it missed its jump onto the ute and face-planted in the mud.
So it is with Hipkins andhis election campaign: the campaign roars off into the distance while Hipkins sits in the mud for up to five days, unless he returns a negative test sooner.
The most damaging element of that is the impact it will have on the already-battered morale of the Labour troops, watching their poll numbers and drawing uncomfortable conclusions about their chances.
Those troops had found some sparks of hope from Hipkins’ reinvigorated performance over the past few days.
He had clearly been buoyed by his good performance in the Newshub leaders’ debate last week and that energy had carried into his campaign. He was making a good job of prosecuting the potential of New Zealand First in government with National and Act. He was even starting to get a bit more comfortable with the small talk stuff of walkabouts and the like, after being out-run by Luxon.
There is one person who is indispensable in a political party’s campaign and that is the party’s leader - the one who is trying to be Prime Minister.
There is no such thing as an understudy or a temporary substitute for them.
That means there is no good time on a campaign to get taken out by the dreaded lurgy.
However, there are worse times than others - and it’s hard to think of a worse time than the first week of advance voting. It’s a crucial time for a leader to be trying to get the Labour vote out: and voter turnout will be key for Labour this time to stop its vote collapsing further.
The risk it is facing is that voters decide the election is a foregone conclusion and don’t bother to vote. Hipkins had intended to spend Sunday in South and West Auckland on that voter turnout mission.
When he returns, he will have a fair bit of catching up to do to try to re-capture the campaign energy: nobody wants defeatism to set in.
It will not take Hipkins out of the race completely, provided his symptoms allow. He can still do some parts: media interviews, via zoom, and social media.
But in a campaign, nothing is as visible and valuable as photos and footage on the news of a leader out and about with the voters. That gives Luxon quite an advantage in the early days of voting.
National leader Christopher Luxon speaks at his party's 100 Day Plan launch in Albany, Auckland. Photo / Hayden Woodward
It will mean others have to step up a bit more to fill in the gaps - those such as deputy leader Kelvin Davis and Carmel Sepuloni, especially in Auckland. While National leader Chris Luxon was wishing Hipkins a speedy recovery at the launch of his 100 Day Plan in Albany, Sepuloni and Davis were stepping in for the launch of the Labour manifesto, Davis introducing them as “the Māori Ken and the Samoan Barbie”.
Grant Robertson - Labour’s second-most-famous face - will also have to step in where he can. Robertson was quick to post reassurance to supporters that it was simply a few days and the rest of them would carry on: “We got this!”
Of course, there was always a likelihood Covid-19 would strike the campaign. The campaigns so far have been like pre-Covid campaigns. Throngs of people, not a mask to be seen, big events, public meetings, walkabouts - and the weather has driven much of it indoors.
Luxon won’t be resting too easily as he gets a few days of uncontested space in front of the public and the television cameras. Campaigns are not bubbles. They involve large numbers of people: volunteers, staff, the public and the media jumping from one campaign to another.
Hipkins is not the only one to have tested positive and there are risks of cross-contamination.
Covid-19 won Labour the last election.
It had possibly already lost them this one anyway: the long tail of consequences had taken its toll on voters’ affections for Labour. Hipkins was, of course, the Covid-19 Minister. He had tried to draw a line, declaring Covid-19 over and lifting all restrictions.
