Christopher Luxon has pulled off one of the most remarkable victories in New Zealand politics, building his National Party from a parlous state to government in less than two years.
No matter what the shape of his Government after the final vote, it is atriumph for the former Air New Zealand chief executive who became an MP only three years ago and leader two years ago.
He was always a leader-in-waiting. But after Labour’s emphatic majority win in 2020, and National’s pitiful 25.6 per cent, the original plan had been for him to take the leadership next term and lead National to victory in 2026.
What was not predicted was how effective Luxon would be in getting National into a credible fighting force, nor was the speed with which the electorate would fall out of love with Jacinda Ardern after getting the country through Covid-19.
During Labour’s election campaign, the only line guaranteed to get applause was any mention of the response to Covid and the lives and jobs saved. But it just wasn’t enough for Chris Hipkins.
But he could not pull off the improbable – an unelected leader gaining an extra term, and taking Labour to a third term.
Despite most of Labour’s policies being geared to the cost-of-living crisis, despite signs of economic improvement, the mood for change was too strong for Hipkins to overcome.
That was undoubtedly fuelled by a succession of ministerial scandals. Last night was a bloodbath and there is likely to be more blood to be spilled as the party comes to term with such a significant defeat.
Hipkins didn’t have the X Factor that Ardern had and there was every possibility Ardern would have delivered a similar result for Labour.
The Greens on the left appear to have benefited from Hipkins’ decision to position Labour as a centrist party and to eschew a wealth tax.
But the country has gone for a fresh start with Christopher Luxon.
Act leader David Seymour helped to build the mood for change over the past three years and he also has done a remarkable job in taking a one-man party from a state of ruin to a credible political force.
For the first half of Luxon’s leadership, Seymour’s experience and ruthlessness made him the de facto leader of the opposition.
But this past year and particularly on the campaign, Luxon has transformed his political skills.
As the ultimate energiser bunny, he was a far better campaigner than Labour or just about anyone anticipated.
If his campaigning style is any guide to how he will govern, it will be with discipline and patience.
And with talks due to begin with Act, and possibly New Zealand First, he will need plenty of it to ensure that the policy priorities reflect the mandate he has been given.
