Election 2023: Audrey Young - the one critical thing Christopher Luxon and the National Party don’t understand about Winston Peters

OPINION:

This is a transcript of Audrey Young’s subscriber-only Premium Politics newsletter. To sign up, click on your profile at nzherald.co.nz and select ‘Newsletters’. For a step-by-step guide, click here.

Welcome to the Politics Briefing. On the same day National campaign manager Chris Bishop was warning about a second election if National couldn’t do a deal with New Zealand First, Act’s David Seymour was in Hastings reviving talk about having to work with National “vote by vote” if Act couldn’t reach a deal. What an unbelievable start to the home straight, to be focusing on potential failure.

The media cannot be blamed for that. Bishop’s comments were not off the cuff. He gave his quite deliberate warnings about New Zealand First to Herald political editor Claire Trevett and doubled down as he defended them to other media. Seymour’s comments were recorded by Richard Harman of Politik.

Poor Christopher Luxon. The National leader spent yesterday reassuring the public there wouldn’t be a need for a second election and that he was certain he could work with Seymour. He made one prediction - that Hipkins would be talking about him at his media standup in negative terms. Of course, everyone was talking about a second election and the bizarre fact it was being rolled out as a potential vote-winner for National.

It has become clear in this campaign that National does not understand how to handle Winston Peters. He loves being attacked even more than being praised. He profits from it. It’s good for his sense of relevancy and gives him a platform to do what he does best - counter-attack. There is only one way to contain Peters and that is to ignore him.

Port Waikato byelection

The unexpected death of Act’s Port Waikato candidate, Neil Christensen, will mean a byelection on November 25 for a local MP. But electors should still cast their votes up to October 14 for their party vote to count.

Costings battle: the sequel

Finance Minister Grant Robertson and National Party finance spokeswoman Nicola Willis. Photo / Jack Ellis

Labour has renewed its attack on National’s fiscal plan, with Finance Minister Grant Robertson producing a document suggesting National has underestimated some costs and it would require an additional $3 billion in cuts to those previously set out. Shadow finance minister Nicola Willis says Labour’s plans lack credibility on the basis that Robertson had never stuck to previous allowances. They had a lively final debate last night in Wellington at The Post finance debate. Their debates have been a highlight of the campaign.

Meanwhile, if you are as curious as I was about whether Labour still has any realistic path to power, take a look at my story below and the great interactive graphic that our head of data journalism, Chris Knox, has designed. Have a fiddle with the sliders. It shows that even some small movements in party support could drastically change the result from a National-led government to a Labour-led Government. But an important variable is whether New Zealand First makes it over the 5 per cent threshold. If it does, Labour stands little chance; if it doesn’t, it wouldn’t take too much movement for Labour to be in contention.

My colleague Michael Neilson has done a great comprehensive piece on the Māori seats (see below) and he roped in three experts - Ngahuia Wade, Bernie O’Donnell and Tukoroirangi Morgan - to give their predictions as to who will win.

Quote unquote

“By all means campaign on tax cuts for landlords and millionaires, but how dare you pay for that off the backs of the poorest children in New Zealand?” - Finance Minister Grant Robertson in The Post finance debate with Nicola Willis.

“How dare you lecture me on thousands of dollars when on your watch house prices in a single year went up 30 per cent, while on your watch rents have gone up $180 a week?” - shadow finance minister Nicola Willis to Grant Robertson.

Micro quiz

When was the binding referendum on MMP held and when was the first MMP election held? (Answer below.)

Brickbat

National Party police spokesman Mark Mitchell. Photo / Laura Smith

Goes to National police spokesman Mark Mitchell for yesterday drawing Police Commissioner Andrew Coster into the campaign, criticising Labour and Coster in the same breath. Not fair and not professional. FYI Coster was appointed for five years from April 2020.

Bouquet

To Winston Peters for revealing to his Masterton audience why he hates being called “Winnie” - he used to be teased at school about his name and was called “Winnie the Pooh”.

Latest political news and views

Inform your vote: How much income tax will you pay under each party’s plan? Jenée Tibshraeny strips out the politics and does the maths so you don’t have to.

Byelection: National could get an extra MP after the death of Act candidate Neil Christensen in the Port Waikato electorate.

Opinion: Can Labour win from here? There’s a narrow path, writes Audrey Young - but it depends on New Zealand First.

Inform your vote: What will the election mean for renters and landlords? Ben Leahy compares the parties’ housing policies.

Fiscal plans: Labour has released its own version of National’s fiscal plan, which finance spokesman Grant Robertson says would require “more than $3 billion in cuts every year”.

Leaders breakfast: Labour leader Chris Hipkins faced two hours of questions from Newstalk ZB host Mike Hosking and his listeners on Monday.

Coalitions I: The National Party has ramped up its efforts to try to stop NZ First holding the balance of power by raising the prospect of a second election.

Coalitions II: Labour has come out swinging on the back of National’s claims a second election might be required if it couldn’t reach a deal with NZ First.

Boot camps: Newstalk ZB’s Chelsea Daniels runs through the history of the political football that is boot camps for young offenders.

Opinion: Politicians who need a lesson in how co-governance actually works might benefit from a visit to Newton Central School, writes Simon Wilson.

Coalitions III: Winston Peters has hit back at National’s latest advertising campaign aimed at scaring people off voting for New Zealand First.

Coalitions IV: New polling suggests most Kiwis don’t believe Winston Peters’ commitment not to work with the Labour Party.

Quiz answer: The binding referendum was held in 1993, following an indicative referendum in 1992, and the first election under MMP was held in 1996.

Audrey Young is the New Zealand Herald’s senior political correspondent. She was named Political Journalist of the Year at the Voyager Media Awards in 2023, 2020 and 2018.

For more political news and views, listen to On the Campaign, the Herald’s politics podcast.